VoxPop top scenarios
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 144 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Premier League: Arsenal v Burnley
Arsenal 1-0 Burnley
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
68%Crowd
38%Market
+30Divergence
+30 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on do both teams score at least one goal in regulation.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Biggest gap38%68% yes+30
2Are there three or more total goals in regulation?63%74% yes+11
3Who wins this match?90%85% Arsenal-5
4Is Arsenal ahead at half time?76%74% yes-2
Crowd & market agreedArsenal 1-0 Burnley — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there three or more…Surprise
both teams score at…Market beat the crowd
Arsenal ahead at half…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters144World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeArsenal
Voters144
ReadConsensus
2Are there three or more total goals in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters144
ReadUpset
3Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters144
ReadMarket
4Is Arsenal ahead at half time?
Outcomeyes
Voters144
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.04
Are there three or more total goals in regulation1.10
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation0.92
Is Arsenal ahead at half time0.14
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Are there three or more total goals in regulation?Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Is Arsenal ahead at half time?
133%47 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.0×
216%23 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.1×
312%17 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
1.1×
48%12 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.6×
58%12 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
0.7×
65%7 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
1.2×
75%7 voters
BurnleyGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.2×
83%5 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noGot it wrong
0.7×
92%3 voters
BurnleyGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
1.4×
101%2 voters
BurnleyGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (144 voters · top 10 of 17 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.11How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=144). Average 2.18 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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