VoxPop top scenarios
31% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 213 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
French Open: Mirra Andreeva v Sorana Cirstea
M. Andreeva 6 6 Romania S. Cîrstea 0 3 Mirra Andreeva Sorana Cîrstea 3 Aces 0 1 Double faults 1 78% First serve % 63% 74% Win % on 1st serve 48% 63% Win % on 2nd serve 13% 6/6 Break points 1/2 0 Tiebreaks won 0 28 Receiving points won 12 56 Points won 27 12 Games won 3 6 Max games won in a row 1 7 Max points won in a row 3 28 Service points won 15 6 Service games won 2
Crowd called 3 of 5 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will the match go 3 or more sets?
72%Crowd
41%Market
+31Divergence
+31 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on will the match go 3 or more sets.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will the match go 3 or more sets?Biggest gap41%72% yes+31
2Will Andreeva win by 2 or more sets?40%64% Yes+24
3Will the match have 24 or more total games?42%62% Yes+20
4Who wins the match?64%71% Mirra Andreeva+7
5Who wins the first set?58%59% Andreeva+1
Crowd & market agreedM. Andreeva 6 6 Romania S. Cîrstea 0 3 Mirra Andreeva Sorana Cîrstea 3 Aces 0 1 Double faults 1 78% First serve % 63% 74% Win % on 1st serve 48% 63% Win % on 2nd serve 13% 6/6 Break points 1/2 0 Tiebreaks won 0 28 Receiving points won 12 56 Points won 27 12 Games won 3 6 Max games won in a row 1 7 Max points won in a row 3 28 Service points won 15 6 Service games won 2 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 5questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins the matchCrowd & market agreed
the match go 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
Andreeva win by 2 or…Crowd beat the market
the match have 24 or…Market beat the crowd
wins the first setCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters213World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeMirra Andreeva
Voters213
ReadConsensus
2Will the match go 3 or more sets?
Outcomeno
Voters213
ReadMarket
3Will Andreeva win by 2 or more sets?
OutcomeYes
Voters213
ReadCrowd
4Will the match have 24 or more total games?
OutcomeNo
Voters213
ReadMarket
5Who wins the first set?
OutcomeAndreeva
Voters213
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.17
Will the match go 3 or more sets1.04
Will Andreeva win by 2 or more sets0.26
Will the match have 24 or more total games0.77
Who wins the first set0.34
Average0.51
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match go 3 or more sets?Will Andreeva win by 2 or more sets?Will the match have 24 or more total games?Who wins the first set?
115%33 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
1.3×
29%19 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
AndreevaCalled it!
1.2×
36%13 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
CirsteaGot it wrong
0.7×
46%13 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
CirsteaGot it wrong
1.3×
56%13 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
0.9×
65%10 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
AndreevaCalled it!
1.1×
75%10 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
noCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
AndreevaCalled it!
1.6×
84%9 voters
Sorana CirsteaGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
CirsteaGot it wrong
1.2×
94%9 voters
Sorana CirsteaGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
0.9×
103%7 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
CirsteaGot it wrong
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (213 voters · top 10 of 31 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=213). Average 2.6 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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