Alexander Zverev beats Jakub Mensik 7-5 6-2 3-6 6-3
The verdict
Alexander Zverev beats Jakub Mensik 7-5 6-2 3-6 6-3
French Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev 765 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points below the market's price on Alexander Zverev, and it went the other way.
52%Crowd on Alexander Zverev
78%Market price
-26Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 5questions the crowd called · 4 alongside the market
wins the matchCrowd & market agreed
Zverev win by 2 or more…Crowd & market agreed
the match have 39 or…Market beat the crowd
wins the first setCrowd & market agreed
the match go 4 or more…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario12%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters765World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
Alexander Zverev ✓52%
Jakub Mensik48%
OutcomeAlexander Zverev
Voters765
ReadConsensus
2Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets?
Yes ✓74%
No26%
OutcomeYes
Voters765
ReadConsensus
3Will the match have 39 or more total games?
Yes55%
No ✓45%
OutcomeNo
Voters765
ReadMarket
4Who wins the first set?
Zverev ✓54%
Mensik46%
OutcomeZverev
Voters765
ReadConsensus
5Will the match go 4 or more sets?
Yes ✓65%
No35%
OutcomeYes
Voters765
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
Who wins the match: Alexander ZverevConsensus
Mkt 78%Crowd 52%-26pp
Result: Alexander Zverev · 0.46
: Deep
Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets: YesConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 74%+12pp
Result: Yes · 0.14
: Thin
Will the match have 39 or more total games: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 55%+6pp
Result: No · 0.61
: Thin
Who wins the first set: ZverevConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 54%-12pp
Result: Zverev · 0.42
: Deep
Will the match go 4 or more sets: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 65%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.24
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.46
Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets0.14
Will the match have 39 or more total games0.61
Who wins the first set0.42
Will the match go 4 or more sets0.24
Average0.37
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
27% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 765 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets?Will the match have 39 or more total games?Who wins the first set?Will the match go 4 or more sets?
112%90 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.6×
28%59 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
37%56 voters
Jakub MensikGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
MensikGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
47%52 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
MensikGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
56%44 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
65%39 voters
Jakub MensikGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
74%33 voters
Jakub MensikGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
MensikGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
84%33 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
MensikGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
94%29 voters
Jakub MensikGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
103%26 voters
Jakub MensikGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
MensikGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (765 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-9The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-9; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
5 / 559 · 8%
4 / 5205 · 27%
3 / 5219 · 29%
2 / 5182 · 24%
1 / 587 · 11%
0 / 513 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=765). Average 2.91 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.