VoxPop top scenarios
32% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 553 voters
The matchAwaiting resultUpset
French Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi
M. Berrettini 5 2 Italy M. Arnaldi 7 5 MatteoBerrettini MatteoArnaldi 4 Aces 1 1 Double faults 3 64% First serve % 66% 59% Win % on 1st serve 65% 37% Win % on 2nd serve 69% 3/3 Break points 5/15 0 Tiebreaks won 0 21 Receiving points won 43 65 Points won 78 7 Games won 12 3 Max games won in a row 4 7 Max points won in a row 6 44 Service points won 35 4 Service games won 7
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Berrettini win by 2 or more sets?
67%Crowd
50%Market
+17Divergence
+17 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd are calling Yes on will berrettini win by 2 or more sets.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Berrettini win by 2 or more sets?Biggest gap50%67% Yes+17
2Will the match have 37 or more total games?50%60% Yes+10
3Who wins the match?63%71% Matteo Berrettini+8
4Will the match go 4 or more sets?63%68% Yes+5
5Who wins the first set?58%59% Berrettini+1
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters553World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeMatteo Arnaldi
Voters553
ReadUpset
2Who wins the first set?
OutcomeArnaldi
Voters553
ReadUpset
3Will the match go 4 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters553
ReadUpset
4Will Berrettini win by 2 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters553
ReadMarket
5Will the match have 37 or more total games?
OutcomeNo
Voters553
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match1.01
Who wins the first set0.70
Will the match go 4 or more sets0.92
Will Berrettini win by 2 or more sets0.90
Will the match have 37 or more total games0.72
Average0.85
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Who wins the first set?Will the match go 4 or more sets?Will Berrettini win by 2 or more sets?Will the match have 37 or more total games?
116%88 voters
Matteo BerrettiniGot it wrong
BerrettiniGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
29%50 voters
Matteo BerrettiniGot it wrong
BerrettiniGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
37%40 voters
Matteo BerrettiniGot it wrong
ArnaldiCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
46%33 voters
Matteo BerrettiniGot it wrong
BerrettiniGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.7×
55%27 voters
Matteo ArnaldiCalled it!
ArnaldiCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
65%26 voters
Matteo BerrettiniGot it wrong
BerrettiniGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
74%22 voters
Matteo BerrettiniGot it wrong
BerrettiniGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
83%19 voters
Matteo ArnaldiCalled it!
BerrettiniGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
93%18 voters
Matteo BerrettiniGot it wrong
ArnaldiCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
103%18 voters
Matteo BerrettiniGot it wrong
ArnaldiCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (553 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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