VoxPop top scenarios
28% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 185 voters
The matchResolvedMarket beat the crowd
French Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev
27 R. Jodar 63 1 3 Germany 2 A. Zverev 77 6 6 RafaelJodar AlexanderZverev 1 Aces 7 0 Double faults 0 75% First serve % 80% 55% Win % on 1st serve 71% 58% Win % on 2nd serve 61% 1/6 Break points 4/10 0 Tiebreaks won 1 28 Receiving points won 45 85 Points won 107 10 Games won 19 3 Max games won in a row 7 6 Max points won in a row 11 57 Service points won 62 9 Service games won 13
Crowd called 2 of 5 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins the match?
52%Crowd
27%Market
+25Divergence
+25 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Rafael Jodar on who wins the match.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins the match?Biggest gap27%52% Rafael Jodar+25
2Will the match have 39 or more total games?44%63% Yes+19
3Will the match go 4 or more sets?60%72% Yes+12
4Who wins the first set?64%56% Zverev-8
5Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets?59%66% Yes+7
Market beat the crowd27 R. Jodar 63 1 3 Germany 2 A. Zverev 77 6 6 RafaelJodar AlexanderZverev 1 Aces 7 0 Double faults 0 75% First serve % 80% 55% Win % on 1st serve 71% 58% Win % on 2nd serve 61% 1/6 Break points 4/10 0 Tiebreaks won 1 28 Receiving points won 45 85 Points won 107 10 Games won 19 3 Max games won in a row 7 6 Max points won in a row 11 57 Service points won 62 9 Service games won 13 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 5questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins the matchMarket beat the crowd
the match go 4 or more…Surprise
Zverev win by 2 or more…Crowd & market agreed
the match have 39 or…Market beat the crowd
wins the first setCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario11%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters185World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeAlexander Zverev
Voters185
ReadMarket
2Will the match go 4 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters185
ReadUpset
3Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets?
OutcomeYes
Voters185
ReadConsensus
4Will the match have 39 or more total games?
OutcomeNo
Voters185
ReadMarket
5Who wins the first set?
OutcomeZverev
Voters185
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.54
Will the match go 4 or more sets1.04
Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets0.23
Will the match have 39 or more total games0.79
Who wins the first set0.39
Average0.60
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match go 4 or more sets?Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets?Will the match have 39 or more total games?Who wins the first set?
111%20 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ZverevCalled it!
1.3×
210%18 voters
Rafael JodarGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
JodarGot it wrong
1.4×
38%14 voters
Rafael JodarGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
JodarGot it wrong
2.1×
46%11 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
JodarGot it wrong
0.9×
56%11 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
1.3×
66%11 voters
Rafael JodarGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ZverevCalled it!
0.7×
74%7 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
1.6×
84%7 voters
Rafael JodarGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ZverevCalled it!
0.8×
94%7 voters
Rafael JodarGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
JodarGot it wrong
0.9×
104%7 voters
Rafael JodarGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (185 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-9The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-9; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-12. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=185). Average 2.35 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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