FinanceResolvedMarket beat the crowd
Crypto week: which coins finish up by Friday?
Resolved
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $64,500 this Friday?
67%Crowd
41%Market
+26Divergence

+26 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 26 points above market on Bitcoin 'Above', the widest gap on the board; all four legs closed the other way.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $64,500 this Friday?Biggest gap41%67% Above+26
2Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,820 this Friday?37%53% Above+16
3Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?44%54% Above+10
4Will Solana (SOL) close above $83 this Friday?44%51% Above+7
How it landed:Market beat the crowdResolved — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed poll data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called
Bitcoin (BTC) close…Market beat the crowd
Ethereum (ETH) close…Market beat the crowd
Solana (SOL) close…Market beat the crowd
XRP close above $1.14…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $64,500 this Friday?
Above67%
Below ✓33%
OutcomeBelow
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
2Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,820 this Friday?
Above53%
Below ✓47%
OutcomeBelow
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
3Will Solana (SOL) close above $83 this Friday?
Above51%
Below ✓49%
OutcomeBelow
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
4Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?
Above54%
Below ✓46%
OutcomeBelow
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $64,500 this Friday: AboveMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 67%+26pp
Result: Below · 0.90
: Deep
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,820 this Friday: AboveMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 53%+16pp
Result: Below · 0.56
: Deep
Will Solana (SOL) close above $83 this Friday: AboveMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 51%+7pp
Result: Below · 0.52
: Thin
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday: AboveMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 54%+10pp
Result: Below · 0.58
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $64,500 this Friday0.90
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,820 this Friday0.56
Will Solana (SOL) close above $83 this Friday0.52
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday0.58
Average0.64
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

A rising-tide vision: the crowd saw all four coins clearing their thresholds together, a coordinated crypto rally with no laggards left behind.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $64,500 this Friday?Above
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,820 this Friday?Above
Will Solana (SOL) close above $83 this Friday?Above
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?Above
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters · came true

The bear-sweep scenario: a unified downturn pulling every coin under its line, with no corner of the market finding a foothold.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $64,500 this Friday?Below
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,820 this Friday?Below
Will Solana (SOL) close above $83 this Friday?Below
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?Below
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A split-market picture: Bitcoin and Ethereum holding their ground while Solana and XRP slipped, the larger caps decoupling from the smaller.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $64,500 this Friday?Above
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,820 this Friday?Above
Will Solana (SOL) close above $83 this Friday?Below
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?Below
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWill Bitcoin (BTC) close above $64,500 this Friday?Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,820 this Friday?Will Solana (SOL) close above $83 this Friday?Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?
117%220 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
1.7×
210%129 voters
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
2.8×
39%117 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
1.1×
48%106 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
0.9×
58%100 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
0.9×
67%94 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
0.9×
77%94 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
0.9×
86%81 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
0.8×
95%69 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
0.7×
104%58 voters
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 16 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4129 · 10%
3 / 4199 · 15%
2 / 4426 · 33%
1 / 4334 · 26%
0 / 4220 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.76 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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