VoxPop top scenarios
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 100 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Premier League: Crystal Palace v Arsenal
Arsenal 2, Crystal Palace 1
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals?
81%Crowd
30%Market
+51Divergence
+51 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on will arsenal win by 2 or more goals.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals?Biggest gap30%81% yes+51
2Who wins this match?54%79% Arsenal+25
3Will Arsenal score 2 or more goals?55%77% yes+22
4Will Crystal Palace score at least one goal?63%57% yes-6
Crowd & market agreedArsenal 2, Crystal Palace 1 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
Arsenal win by 2 or…Market beat the crowd
Arsenal score 2 or more…Crowd & market agreed
Crystal Palace score at…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters100World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeArsenal
Voters100
ReadConsensus
2Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals?
Outcomeno
Voters100
ReadMarket
3Will Arsenal score 2 or more goals?
Outcomeyes
Voters100
ReadConsensus
4Will Crystal Palace score at least one goal?
Outcomeyes
Voters100
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.07
Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals1.31
Will Arsenal score 2 or more goals0.11
Will Crystal Palace score at least one goal0.37
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals?Will Arsenal score 2 or more goals?Will Crystal Palace score at least one goal?
134%34 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.2×
228%28 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
1.3×
34%4 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
0.5×
43%3 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
0.5×
53%3 voters
DrawGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.8×
63%3 voters
DrawGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
10.9×
73%3 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
0.6×
83%3 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.5×
92%2 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
noCalled it!
noGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
1.3×
102%2 voters
PalaceGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
2.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (100 voters · top 10 of 22 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=100). Average 2.32 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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