VoxPop top scenarios
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 113 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Premier League: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Everton
Tottenham 1, Everton 0
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Tottenham win by 2 or more goals?
66%Crowd
26%Market
+40Divergence
+40 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on will tottenham win by 2 or more goals.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Tottenham win by 2 or more goals?Biggest gap26%66% yes+40
2Will both teams score?57%75% yes+18
3Who leads at half-time?38%49% Tottenham Hotspur FC+11
4Who wins this match?50%59% Tottenham Hotspur FC+9
Crowd & market agreedTottenham 1, Everton 0 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
Tottenham win by 2 or…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters113World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeTottenham Hotspur FC
Voters113
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeTottenham Hotspur FC
Voters113
ReadCrowd
3Will Tottenham win by 2 or more goals?
Outcomeno
Voters113
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score?
Outcomeno
Voters113
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.27
Who leads at half-time0.40
Will Tottenham win by 2 or more goals0.87
Will both teams score1.13
Average0.67
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will Tottenham win by 2 or more goals?Will both teams score?
127%30 voters
Tottenham Hotspur FCCalled it!
Tottenham Hotspur FCCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.9×
28%9 voters
Everton FCGot it wrong
Everton FCGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.7×
37%8 voters
Tottenham Hotspur FCCalled it!
Tottenham Hotspur FCCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
1.5×
46%7 voters
Tottenham Hotspur FCCalled it!
Tottenham Hotspur FCCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.8×
55%6 voters
Tottenham Hotspur FCCalled it!
Everton FCGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.6×
64%5 voters
Everton FCGot it wrong
Everton FCGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.9×
74%5 voters
Everton FCGot it wrong
Everton FCGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
2.9×
84%5 voters
Tottenham Hotspur FCCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
4.6×
94%4 voters
DrawGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
6.1×
103%3 voters
DrawGot it wrong
Everton FCGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (113 voters · top 10 of 25 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.35How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=113). Average 1.66 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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