NBA Finals Game 2: New York at San Antonio 865 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 20 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
55%Crowd on Yes
35%Market price
+20Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
Spurs win by 5 points…Surprise
there 221 points or…Market beat the crowd
Spurs ahead at half timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters865World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Spurs67%
Knicks ✓33%
OutcomeKnicks
Voters865
ReadUpset
2Will Spurs win by 5 points or more?
Yes74%
No ✓26%
OutcomeNo
Voters865
ReadUpset
3Are there 221 points or more scored in total?
Yes55%
No ✓45%
OutcomeNo
Voters865
ReadMarket
4Are Spurs ahead at half time?
Yes70%
No ✓30%
OutcomeNo
Voters865
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
Who wins this match: SpursUpset
Mkt 65%Crowd 67%+2pp
Result: Knicks · 0.90
: Deep
Will Spurs win by 5 points or more: YesUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 74%+17pp
Result: No · 1.10
: Deep
Are there 221 points or more scored in total: YesMarket
Mkt 35%Crowd 55%+20pp
Result: No · 0.61
: Deep
Are Spurs ahead at half time: YesUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 70%+7pp
Result: No · 0.98
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.90
Will Spurs win by 5 points or more1.10
Are there 221 points or more scored in total0.61
Are Spurs ahead at half time0.98
Average0.89
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 865 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will Spurs win by 5 points or more?Are there 221 points or more scored in total?Are Spurs ahead at half time?
124%205 voters
SpursGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
218%160 voters
SpursGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
38%71 voters
KnicksCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
46%51 voters
SpursGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
55%45 voters
KnicksCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
65%44 voters
SpursGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.8×
75%39 voters
SpursGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
84%37 voters
KnicksCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.1×
94%33 voters
SpursGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
104%31 voters
SpursGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (865 voters · top 10 of 16 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 424 · 3%
3 / 4100 · 12%
2 / 4221 · 26%
1 / 4315 · 36%
0 / 4205 · 24%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=865). Average 1.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.