French Open: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska 393 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 40 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
61%Crowd on Yes
21%Market price
+40Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 5questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
wins the matchSurprise
the match go 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
wins the first setSurprise
Shnaider win by 2 or…Market beat the crowd
the match have 24 or…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters393World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
Diana Shnaider74%
Maja Chwalinska ✓26%
OutcomeMaja Chwalinska
Voters393
ReadUpset
2Will the match go 3 or more sets?
Yes71%
No ✓29%
OutcomeNo
Voters393
ReadMarket
3Who wins the first set?
Shnaider54%
Chwalinska ✓46%
OutcomeChwalinska
Voters393
ReadUpset
4Will Shnaider win by 2 or more sets?
Yes66%
No ✓34%
OutcomeNo
Voters393
ReadMarket
5Will the match have 24 or more total games?
Yes61%
No ✓39%
OutcomeNo
Voters393
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
Who wins the match: Diana ShnaiderUpset
Mkt 65%Crowd 74%+9pp
Result: Maja Chwalinska · 1.10
: Deep
Will the match go 3 or more sets: YesMarket
Mkt 40%Crowd 71%+31pp
Result: No · 1.01
: Thin
Who wins the first set: ShnaiderUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 54%-6pp
Result: Chwalinska · 0.58
: Thin
Will Shnaider win by 2 or more sets: YesMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 66%+25pp
Result: No · 0.87
: Thin
Will the match have 24 or more total games: YesMarket
Mkt 21%Crowd 61%+40pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match1.10
Will the match go 3 or more sets1.01
Who wins the first set0.58
Will Shnaider win by 2 or more sets0.87
Will the match have 24 or more total games0.74
Average0.86
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 393 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match go 3 or more sets?Who wins the first set?Will Shnaider win by 2 or more sets?Will the match have 24 or more total games?
116%62 voters
Diana ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
211%44 voters
Diana ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ChwalinskaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
37%29 voters
Diana ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
46%22 voters
Diana ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ShnaiderGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
55%21 voters
Diana ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ChwalinskaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
64%16 voters
Diana ShnaiderGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
74%16 voters
Maja ChwalinskaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
84%14 voters
Diana ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ChwalinskaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
94%14 voters
Diana ShnaiderGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ChwalinskaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
103%12 voters
Maja ChwalinskaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ChwalinskaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (393 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
5 / 55 · 1%
4 / 525 · 6%
3 / 577 · 20%
2 / 5105 · 27%
1 / 5119 · 30%
0 / 562 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=393). Average 1.74 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.