French Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva 908 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 35 points above the market's price on Maja Chwalinska, and it went the other way.
58%Crowd on Maja Chwalinska
23%Market price
+35Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 5questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins the matchMarket beat the crowd
Andreeva win by 2 or…Crowd & market agreed
the match go 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
the match have 24 or…Market beat the crowd
wins the first setCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario10%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters908World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
Maja Chwalinska58%
Mirra Andreeva ✓42%
OutcomeMirra Andreeva
Voters908
ReadMarket
2Will Andreeva win by 2 or more sets?
Yes ✓73%
No27%
OutcomeYes
Voters908
ReadConsensus
3Will the match go 3 or more sets?
Yes63%
No ✓37%
OutcomeNo
Voters908
ReadMarket
4Will the match have 24 or more total games?
Yes58%
No ✓42%
OutcomeNo
Voters908
ReadMarket
5Who wins the first set?
Andreeva ✓55%
Chwalinska45%
OutcomeAndreeva
Voters908
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
Who wins the match: Maja ChwalinskaMarket
Mkt 23%Crowd 58%+35pp
Result: Mirra Andreeva · 0.67
: Deep
Will Andreeva win by 2 or more sets: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 73%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.15
: Deep
Will the match go 3 or more sets: YesMarket
Mkt 32%Crowd 63%+31pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
Will the match have 24 or more total games: YesMarket
Mkt 33%Crowd 58%+25pp
Result: No · 0.67
: Thin
Who wins the first set: AndreevaConsensus
Mkt 71%Crowd 55%-16pp
Result: Andreeva · 0.40
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.67
Will Andreeva win by 2 or more sets0.15
Will the match go 3 or more sets0.79
Will the match have 24 or more total games0.67
Who wins the first set0.40
Average0.54
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
26% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 908 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will Andreeva win by 2 or more sets?Will the match go 3 or more sets?Will the match have 24 or more total games?Who wins the first set?
110%91 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
1.6×
29%79 voters
Maja ChwalinskaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ChwalinskaGot it wrong
1.2×
37%65 voters
Maja ChwalinskaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
0.8×
46%51 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
AndreevaCalled it!
1.3×
55%47 voters
Maja ChwalinskaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ChwalinskaGot it wrong
1.0×
65%43 voters
Maja ChwalinskaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
AndreevaCalled it!
0.8×
75%41 voters
Maja ChwalinskaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ChwalinskaGot it wrong
1.1×
84%40 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
AndreevaCalled it!
1.7×
94%37 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ChwalinskaGot it wrong
0.8×
104%34 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (908 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-10The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-10; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
5 / 540 · 4%
4 / 5144 · 16%
3 / 5271 · 30%
2 / 5260 · 29%
1 / 5159 · 18%
0 / 534 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=908). Average 2.5 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.