All resolved pollsResolved · 7 AUG 2026Upset
US avocado prices this week
Resolved
The verdict

US avocado prices this week

US avocado prices this week 715 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points below the market's price on $1.20 or below, and it went the other way.

61%Crowd on $1.20 or below
86%Market price
-25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed poll data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
the average advertised…Surprise
that price be above…Surprise
that price be above…Crowd & market agreed
that price be above…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters715World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Will the average advertised US price of one Hass avocado be above $0.90?
Above $0.9072%
$0.90 or below ✓28%
Outcome$0.90 or below
Voters715
ReadUpset
2Will that price be above $1.00?
Above $1.0051%
$1.00 or below ✓49%
Outcome$1.00 or below
Voters715
ReadUpset
3Will that price be above $1.10?
$1.10 or below ✓57%
Above $1.1043%
Outcome$1.10 or below
Voters715
ReadConsensus
4Will that price be above $1.20?
$1.20 or below ✓61%
Above $1.2039%
Outcome$1.20 or below
Voters715
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Will the average advertised US price of one Hass avocado be above $0.90: Above $0.90Upset
Mkt 77%Crowd 72%-5pp
Result: $0.90 or below · 1.04
: Thin
Will that price be above $1.00: Above $1.00Upset
Mkt 56%Crowd 51%-5pp
Result: $1.00 or below · 0.52
: Thin
Will that price be above $1.10: $1.10 or belowConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 57%-10pp
Result: $1.10 or below · 0.37
: Thin
Will that price be above $1.20: $1.20 or belowConsensus
Mkt 86%Crowd 61%-25pp
Result: $1.20 or below · 0.30
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Will the average advertised US price of one Hass avocado be above $0.901.04
Will that price be above $1.000.52
Will that price be above $1.100.37
Will that price be above $1.200.30
Average0.56
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

A crowd that saw prices clearing the base threshold but stalling quickly, settling in a narrow band just above $0.90 and well short of a dollar.

Will the average advertised US price of one Hass avocado be above $0.90?Above $0.90
Will that price be above $1.00?$1.00 or below
Will that price be above $1.10?$1.10 or below
Will that price be above $1.20?$1.20 or below
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A bullish sweep: the crowd envisioning prices climbing through every ceiling, clearing $0.90, $1.00, $1.10, and pushing past $1.20 with room to spare.

Will the average advertised US price of one Hass avocado be above $0.90?Above $0.90
Will that price be above $1.00?Above $1.00
Will that price be above $1.10?Above $1.10
Will that price be above $1.20?Above $1.20
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A middle-ground read: prices comfortably above $0.90 and past a dollar, but running out of momentum before the $1.10 mark and staying contained.

Will the average advertised US price of one Hass avocado be above $0.90?Above $0.90
Will that price be above $1.00?Above $1.00
Will that price be above $1.10?$1.10 or below
Will that price be above $1.20?$1.20 or below
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 715 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWill the average advertised US price of one Hass avocado be above $0.90?Will that price be above $1.00?Will that price be above $1.10?Will that price be above $1.20?
115%107 voters
Above $0.90Got it wrong
$1.00 or belowCalled it!
$1.10 or belowCalled it!
$1.20 or belowCalled it!
1.2×
213%96 voters
Above $0.90Got it wrong
Above $1.00Got it wrong
Above $1.10Got it wrong
Above $1.20Got it wrong
2.2×
313%94 voters
Above $0.90Got it wrong
Above $1.00Got it wrong
$1.10 or belowCalled it!
$1.20 or belowCalled it!
1.0×
412%86 voters
$0.90 or belowCalled it!
$1.00 or belowCalled it!
$1.10 or belowCalled it!
$1.20 or belowCalled it!
2.5×
510%69 voters
Above $0.90Got it wrong
Above $1.00Got it wrong
Above $1.10Got it wrong
$1.20 or belowCalled it!
1.0×
66%44 voters
Above $0.90Got it wrong
$1.00 or belowCalled it!
Above $1.10Got it wrong
Above $1.20Got it wrong
1.0×
76%43 voters
Above $0.90Got it wrong
Above $1.00Got it wrong
$1.10 or belowCalled it!
Above $1.20Got it wrong
0.7×
85%35 voters
Above $0.90Got it wrong
$1.00 or belowCalled it!
$1.10 or belowCalled it!
Above $1.20Got it wrong
0.6×
94%28 voters
Above $0.90Got it wrong
$1.00 or belowCalled it!
Above $1.10Got it wrong
$1.20 or belowCalled it!
0.4×
103%19 voters
$0.90 or belowCalled it!
Above $1.00Got it wrong
$1.10 or belowCalled it!
$1.20 or belowCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (715 voters · top 10 of 16 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 486 · 12%
3 / 4157 · 22%
2 / 4203 · 28%
1 / 4173 · 24%
0 / 496 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=715). Average 1.95 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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