What the crowd rated

Who do you think wins Brazil's October election?

Brazil votes for president this October and the race is taking shape. Tell us who you think comes out on top, and how sure you are.

43%Flávio BolsonaroQuestion 1

39%LulaQuestion 2

39%LulaQuestion 3

37%LulaQuestion 4

35%Fairly sureQuestion 5

Question by question

Question 1Pick one

Who do you think wins Brazil's October election?

Flávio Bolsonaro43%434

Lula36%366

Renan Santos19%193

Other (tell us)1%10

Question 2Pick one

Which candidate has the most momentum right now?

Lula39%394

Flávio Bolsonaro36%363

Renan Santos24%238

Other (tell us)1%8

Question 3Pick one

Which candidate has run the strongest campaign so far?

Lula39%387

Flávio Bolsonaro37%371

Renan Santos23%235

Other (tell us)1%10

Question 4Pick one

Which candidate do you think people are overrating?

Lula37%370

Flávio Bolsonaro36%364

Renan Santos26%257

Other (tell us)1%12

Question 5Pick one

How sure are you about your pick for who wins?

Fairly sure35%350

Very sure35%348

Could go either way21%206

No idea, just guessing10%99

Who answered, and how we count itSampling, free-text handling and full methodology1k

Verified humans

1k

Every ballot is one World ID holder. No bots, no repeat voting, no weighting applied.

Margin at 95%

±3.1 pts

Sampling error for this many ballots. The crowd is self-selected, so this is not a representative panel.

Written-in answers

40

Summarised into themes by machine, then reviewed. Individual responses are never shown.

Aggregate results from verified voters. Free-text answers are summarised into themes; individual responses are kept private and never shown. A read-only record of what World ID holders expressed in our polls — not VoxPop predictions, and not financial advice.

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