VoxPop top scenarios
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 141 voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Premier League: Bournemouth v Manchester City
Bournemouth 1, Manchester City 1
Crowd and market both called 1 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Is Bournemouth ahead at half time?
57%Crowd
75%Market
-18Divergence
-18 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called no on is bournemouth ahead at half time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Is Bournemouth ahead at half time?Biggest gap75%57% no-18
2Who wins this match?58%75% Manchester City+17
3Are there three or more total goals in regulation?66%72% yes+6
4Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?66%67% yes+1
UpsetBournemouth 1, Manchester City 1 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 3 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there three or more…Surprise
both teams score at…Crowd & market agreed
Bournemouth ahead at…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters141World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeDraw
Voters141
ReadUpset
2Are there three or more total goals in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters141
ReadUpset
3Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
Outcomeyes
Voters141
ReadConsensus
4Is Bournemouth ahead at half time?
Outcomeyes
Voters141
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.42
Are there three or more total goals in regulation1.04
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation0.22
Is Bournemouth ahead at half time0.65
Average0.83
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Are there three or more total goals in regulation?Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Is Bournemouth ahead at half time?
120%28 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
1.0×
216%23 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.0×
314%20 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
1.4×
411%16 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
1.4×
54%6 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.7×
64%6 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.3×
74%5 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
0.9×
84%5 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
0.8×
93%4 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
0.4×
103%4 voters
DrawCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
3.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (141 voters · top 10 of 20 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=141). Average 1.46 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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