VoxPop top scenarios
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 425 voters
The matchAwaiting resultUpset
French Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider
1 A. Sabalenka 6 5 0 25 D. Shnaider 3 7 6 ArynaSabalenka DianaShnaider 2 Aces 1 3 Double faults 1 73% First serve % 75% 56% Win % on 1st serve 55% 39% Win % on 2nd serve 72% 4/5 Break points 7/20 0 Tiebreaks won 0 31 Receiving points won 56 88 Points won 100 11 Games won 16 4 Max games won in a row 10 9 Max points won in a row 7 57 Service points won 44 7 Service games won 9
VoxPop gap highlight
Will the match go 3 or more sets?
71%Crowd
31%Market
+40Divergence
+40 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd are calling yes on will the match go 3 or more sets.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will the match go 3 or more sets?Biggest gap31%71% yes+40
2Who wins the match?87%66% Aryna Sabalenka-21
3Who wins the first set?78%61% Sabalenka-17
4Will set 1 have 10 or more games?41%57% yes+16
5Will Sabalenka win by 2 or more sets?64%71% Yes+7
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters425World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeDiana Shnaider
Voters425
ReadUpset
2Will the match go 3 or more sets?
Outcomeyes
Voters425
ReadCrowd
3Who wins the first set?
OutcomeSabalenka
Voters425
ReadConsensus
4Will Sabalenka win by 2 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters425
ReadUpset
5Will set 1 have 10 or more games?
Outcomeno
Voters425
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.87
Will the match go 3 or more sets0.17
Who wins the first set0.30
Will Sabalenka win by 2 or more sets1.01
Will set 1 have 10 or more games0.65
Average0.60
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match go 3 or more sets?Who wins the first set?Will Sabalenka win by 2 or more sets?Will set 1 have 10 or more games?
116%69 voters
Aryna SabalenkaGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
SabalenkaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.4×
210%43 voters
Aryna SabalenkaGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
SabalenkaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
1.2×
37%31 voters
Diana ShnaiderCalled it!
yesCalled it!
ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.9×
46%26 voters
Aryna SabalenkaGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.8×
56%25 voters
Aryna SabalenkaGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
SabalenkaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
1.7×
64%19 voters
Aryna SabalenkaGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
SabalenkaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
noCalled it!
1.3×
74%18 voters
Aryna SabalenkaGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
SabalenkaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.9×
84%18 voters
Diana ShnaiderCalled it!
yesCalled it!
SabalenkaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.7×
93%14 voters
Diana ShnaiderCalled it!
yesCalled it!
ShnaiderGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
2.1×
103%13 voters
Aryna SabalenkaGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
ShnaiderGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (425 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching