VoxPop top scenarios
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 96 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
IPL Final - Royal Challengers Bengaluru v Gujarat Titans
Royal Challengers Bengaluru Won by 5 Wickets, 161/5 18 Overs vs 155/8 20 Overs for Titans
Crowd called 1 of 5 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Are there 28 or more sixes scored in the match?
60%Crowd
45%Market
+15Divergence
+15 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on are there 28 or more sixes scored in the match.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Are there 28 or more sixes scored in the match?Biggest gap45%60% yes+15
2Are there 36 or more fours scored in the match?59%72% yes+13
3Which team scores the most sixes?50%63% Titans+13
4Which team will the highest scoring batter be from?50%46% Titans-4
5Who wins this match?53%54% RCB+1
Crowd & market agreedRoyal Challengers Bengaluru Won by 5 Wickets, 161/5 18 Overs vs 155/8 20 Overs for Titans — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 5questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there 36 or more fours…Surprise
there 28 or more sixes…Market beat the crowd
team will the highest…Market beat the crowd
team scores the most…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters96World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeRCB
Voters96
ReadConsensus
2Are there 36 or more fours scored in the match?
Outcomeno
Voters96
ReadUpset
3Are there 28 or more sixes scored in the match?
Outcomeno
Voters96
ReadMarket
4Which team will the highest scoring batter be from?
OutcomeRCB
Voters96
ReadMarket
5Which team scores the most sixes?
OutcomeRCB
Voters96
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.42
Are there 36 or more fours scored in the match1.04
Are there 28 or more sixes scored in the match0.72
Which team will the highest scoring batter be from0.69
Which team scores the most sixes0.78
Average0.73
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Are there 36 or more fours scored in the match?Are there 28 or more sixes scored in the match?Which team will the highest scoring batter be from?Which team scores the most sixes?
118%17 voters
TitansGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
TitansGot it wrong
TitansGot it wrong
3.1×
210%10 voters
RCBCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
RCBCalled it!
RCBCalled it!
3.5×
36%6 voters
TitansGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
TitansGot it wrong
TitansGot it wrong
1.6×
46%6 voters
RCBCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
TitansGot it wrong
RCBCalled it!
1.5×
55%5 voters
RCBCalled it!
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
RCBCalled it!
RCBCalled it!
6.7×
64%4 voters
RCBCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
RCBCalled it!
RCBCalled it!
2.1×
74%4 voters
RCBCalled it!
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
TitansGot it wrong
5.5×
84%4 voters
RCBCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
TitansGot it wrong
1.4×
93%3 voters
TitansGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
TitansGot it wrong
TitansGot it wrong
1.4×
103%3 voters
TitansGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
TitansGot it wrong
TitansGot it wrong
2.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (96 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.43How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.1×The most-backed combination drew 3.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-17. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=96). Average 1.94 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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