French Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli 688 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 44 points above the market's price on Matteo Arnaldi, and it went the other way.
75%Crowd on Matteo Arnaldi
31%Market price
+44Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
wins the matchMarket beat the crowd
the match go 4 or more…Surprise
the match have 37 or…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters688World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
Matteo Arnaldi75%
Flavio Cobolli ✓25%
OutcomeFlavio Cobolli
Voters688
ReadMarket
2Will the match go 4 or more sets?
Yes73%
No ✓27%
OutcomeNo
Voters688
ReadUpset
3Will the match have 37 or more total games?
Yes61%
No ✓39%
OutcomeNo
Voters688
ReadUpset
4Who wins the first set?
Arnaldi59%
Cobolli41%
Outcomeno_result
Voters688
5Will Cobolli win by 2 or more sets?
Yes69%
No31%
Outcomeno_result
Voters688
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
Who wins the match: Matteo ArnaldiMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 75%+44pp
Result: Flavio Cobolli · 1.13
: Deep
Will the match go 4 or more sets: YesUpset
Mkt 62%Crowd 73%+11pp
Result: No · 1.07
: Thin
Will the match have 37 or more total games: YesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 61%+2pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Thin
Who wins the first set: Arnaldi
Mkt 40%Crowd 59%+19pp
Result: no_result · 0.52
: Thin
Will Cobolli win by 2 or more sets: Yes
Mkt 53%Crowd 69%+16pp
Result: no_result · 0.57
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match1.13
Will the match go 4 or more sets1.07
Will the match have 37 or more total games0.74
Who wins the first set0.52
Will Cobolli win by 2 or more sets0.57
Average0.80
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 688 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match go 4 or more sets?Will the match have 37 or more total games?Who wins the first set?Will Cobolli win by 2 or more sets?
117%118 voters
Matteo ArnaldiGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ArnaldiPending
YesPending
1.3×
29%64 voters
Matteo ArnaldiGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
CobolliPending
YesPending
1.0×
37%47 voters
Flavio CobolliCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
CobolliPending
YesPending
2.2×
46%42 voters
Matteo ArnaldiGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ArnaldiPending
YesPending
0.7×
56%40 voters
Matteo ArnaldiGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
CobolliPending
YesPending
1.0×
66%39 voters
Matteo ArnaldiGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ArnaldiPending
NoPending
1.5×
75%36 voters
Matteo ArnaldiGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ArnaldiPending
NoPending
0.9×
84%30 voters
Matteo ArnaldiGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ArnaldiPending
YesPending
1.4×
94%29 voters
Matteo ArnaldiGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ArnaldiPending
YesPending
0.8×
104%26 voters
Flavio CobolliCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ArnaldiPending
YesPending
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (688 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
5 / 50 · 0%
4 / 50 · 0%
3 / 524 · 3%
2 / 5122 · 18%
1 / 5307 · 45%
0 / 5235 · 34%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=688). Average 0.91 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.