VoxPop top scenarios
28% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 165 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd beat the market
French Open: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca
26 J. Menšík 6 6 77 Brazil 28 J. Fonseca 4 3 63 JakubMenšík JoaoFonseca 11 Aces 6 4 Double faults 4 65% First serve % 72% 83% Win % on 1st serve 62% 35% Win % on 2nd serve 63% 5/21 Break points 2/5 1 Tiebreaks won 0 51 Receiving points won 35 117 Points won 111 19 Games won 13 3 Max games won in a row 3 8 Max points won in a row 7 66 Service points won 76 13 Service games won 11
Crowd called 1 of 5 legs; market called 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will the match go 5 or more sets?
60%Crowd
25%Market
+35Divergence
+35 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will the match go 5 or more sets.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will the match go 5 or more sets?Biggest gap25%60% Yes+35
2Who wins the match?35%62% Jakub Mensik+27
3Will the match have 39 or more total games?48%67% Yes+19
4Will Fonseca win by 2 or more sets?52%60% Yes+8
5Who wins the first set?59%56% Fonseca-3
Crowd beat the market26 J. Menšík 6 6 77 Brazil 28 J. Fonseca 4 3 63 JakubMenšík JoaoFonseca 11 Aces 6 4 Double faults 4 65% First serve % 72% 83% Win % on 1st serve 62% 35% Win % on 2nd serve 63% 5/21 Break points 2/5 1 Tiebreaks won 0 51 Receiving points won 35 117 Points won 111 19 Games won 13 3 Max games won in a row 3 8 Max points won in a row 7 66 Service points won 76 13 Service games won 11 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 5questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
wins the matchCrowd beat the market
the match have 39 or…Market beat the crowd
the match go 5 or more…Market beat the crowd
Fonseca win by 2 or…Surprise
wins the first setSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario10%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters165World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeJakub Mensik
Voters165
ReadCrowd
2Will the match have 39 or more total games?
OutcomeNo
Voters165
ReadMarket
3Will the match go 5 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters165
ReadMarket
4Will Fonseca win by 2 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters165
ReadUpset
5Who wins the first set?
OutcomeMensik
Voters165
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.29
Will the match have 39 or more total games0.90
Will the match go 5 or more sets0.72
Will Fonseca win by 2 or more sets0.72
Who wins the first set0.63
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match have 39 or more total games?Will the match go 5 or more sets?Will Fonseca win by 2 or more sets?Who wins the first set?
110%16 voters
Jakub MensikCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
MensikCalled it!
1.5×
210%16 voters
Joao FonsecaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
FonsecaGot it wrong
1.9×
38%14 voters
Jakub MensikCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
MensikCalled it!
1.9×
46%10 voters
Jakub MensikCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
FonsecaGot it wrong
1.1×
55%8 voters
Joao FonsecaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
FonsecaGot it wrong
1.4×
65%8 voters
Jakub MensikCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
FonsecaGot it wrong
2.6×
75%8 voters
Jakub MensikCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
FonsecaGot it wrong
0.9×
84%7 voters
Joao FonsecaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
MensikCalled it!
1.1×
94%7 voters
Jakub MensikCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
FonsecaGot it wrong
0.5×
104%7 voters
Joao FonsecaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
FonsecaGot it wrong
2.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (165 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-10The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-10; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=165). Average 2.19 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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