VoxPop top scenarios
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 76 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
FA Cup Final: Chelsea vs Manchester City
Manchester City 1, Chelsea 0
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Is Chelsea ahead at half time?
51%Crowd
20%Market
+31Divergence
+31 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on is chelsea ahead at half time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Is Chelsea ahead at half time?Biggest gap20%51% yes+31
2Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?57%78% yes+21
3Are there three or more total goals in regulation?56%72% yes+16
4Who wins this match?70%67% Manchester City-3
Crowd & market agreedManchester City 1, Chelsea 0 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there three or more…Surprise
both teams score at…Surprise
Chelsea ahead at half…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters76World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeManchester City
Voters76
ReadConsensus
2Are there three or more total goals in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters76
ReadUpset
3Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters76
ReadUpset
4Is Chelsea ahead at half time?
Outcomeno
Voters76
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.22
Are there three or more total goals in regulation1.04
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation1.22
Is Chelsea ahead at half time0.52
Average0.75
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Are there three or more total goals in regulation?Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Is Chelsea ahead at half time?
124%18 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
1.3×
214%11 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.8×
313%10 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.4×
48%6 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
3.9×
57%5 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.8×
67%5 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.9×
77%5 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.2×
87%5 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
0.7×
95%4 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
0.7×
104%3 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (76 voters · top 10 of 13 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=76). Average 1.66 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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