VoxPop top scenarios
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 80 voters
The matchResolvedUpset
IPL: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals
Rajasthan Royals 243/8 Sunrisers Sunrisers 196
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Do Sunrisers win the toss?
70%Crowd
50%Market
+20Divergence
+20 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on do sunrisers win the toss.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Do Sunrisers win the toss?Biggest gap50%70% yes+20
2Do the Sunrisers score more than 197 runs?64%71% yes+7
3Who wins this match?54%60% Sunrisers+6
4Do the Royals score more than 194 runs?66%71% yes+5
UpsetRajasthan Royals 243/8 Sunrisers Sunrisers 196 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
the Royals score more…Crowd & market agreed
the Sunrisers score…Surprise
Sunrisers win the tossCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters80World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeRoyals
Voters80
ReadUpset
2Do the Royals score more than 194 runs?
Outcomeyes
Voters80
ReadConsensus
3Do the Sunrisers score more than 197 runs?
Outcomeno
Voters80
ReadUpset
4Do Sunrisers win the toss?
Outcomeyes
Voters80
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.72
Do the Royals score more than 194 runs0.17
Do the Sunrisers score more than 197 runs1.01
Do Sunrisers win the toss0.18
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Do the Royals score more than 194 runs?Do the Sunrisers score more than 197 runs?Do Sunrisers win the toss?
124%19 voters
SunrisersGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.1×
211%9 voters
SunrisersGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.3×
310%8 voters
RoyalsCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
0.7×
410%8 voters
SunrisersGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
1.1×
58%6 voters
SunrisersGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.9×
66%5 voters
RoyalsCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
noGot it wrong
2.5×
76%5 voters
RoyalsCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.1×
86%5 voters
RoyalsCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.1×
95%4 voters
RoyalsCalled it!
noGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
2.1×
105%4 voters
RoyalsCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (80 voters · top 10 of 13 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=80). Average 2.1 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching