VoxPop top scenarios
29% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 605 voters
The matchResolvedUpset
French Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva
M. Kostyuk 1 3 M. Andreeva 6 6
Crowd called 0 of 5 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will the match go 3 or more sets?
77%Crowd
40%Market
+37Divergence
+37 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will the match go 3 or more sets.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will the match go 3 or more sets?Biggest gap40%77% Yes+37
2Will Kostyuk win by 2 or more sets?35%60% Yes+25
3Will the match have 23 or more total games?45%61% Yes+16
4Who wins the match?55%62% Marta Kostyuk+7
5Who wins the first set?53%51% Kostyuk-2
UpsetM. Kostyuk 1 3 M. Andreeva 6 6 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 5questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
wins the matchSurprise
the match go 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
Kostyuk win by 2 or…Market beat the crowd
the match have 23 or…Market beat the crowd
wins the first setSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters605World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeMirra Andreeva
Voters605
ReadUpset
2Will the match go 3 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters605
ReadMarket
3Will Kostyuk win by 2 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters605
ReadMarket
4Will the match have 23 or more total games?
OutcomeNo
Voters605
ReadMarket
5Who wins the first set?
OutcomeAndreeva
Voters605
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.77
Will the match go 3 or more sets1.19
Will Kostyuk win by 2 or more sets0.72
Will the match have 23 or more total games0.74
Who wins the first set0.52
Average0.79
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match go 3 or more sets?Will Kostyuk win by 2 or more sets?Will the match have 23 or more total games?Who wins the first set?
114%84 voters
Marta KostyukGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
KostyukGot it wrong
1.6×
28%48 voters
Marta KostyukGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
0.9×
37%41 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
1.9×
46%36 voters
Marta KostyukGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
KostyukGot it wrong
1.0×
56%35 voters
Marta KostyukGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
KostyukGot it wrong
1.0×
65%31 voters
Marta KostyukGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
0.9×
75%31 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AndreevaCalled it!
1.0×
84%25 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
AndreevaCalled it!
1.2×
94%23 voters
Mirra AndreevaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
AndreevaCalled it!
1.7×
104%22 voters
Marta KostyukGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
KostyukGot it wrong
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (605 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=605). Average 1.88 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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