All resolved pollsResolved · 14 AUG 2026Market beat the crowd
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana: where do they close on Friday 14 August?
Resolved
The verdict

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana: where do they close on Friday 14 August?

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana: where do they close on Friday 14 August? 629 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 27 points above the market's price on Above, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Above
48%Market price
+27Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed poll data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called
Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm…Market beat the crowd
Ethereum at Friday's…Market beat the crowd
Solana at Friday's 5pm…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters629World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $63,500 or above, or below $63,500?
Above75%
Below ✓25%
OutcomeBelow
Voters629
ReadMarket
2Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,900 or above, or below $1,900?
Above59%
Below ✓41%
OutcomeBelow
Voters629
ReadMarket
3Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?
Above54%
Below ✓46%
OutcomeBelow
Voters629
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $63,500 or above, or below $63,500: AboveMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 75%+27pp
Result: Below · 1.13
: Deep
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,900 or above, or below $1,900: AboveMarket
Mkt 42%Crowd 59%+17pp
Result: Below · 0.70
: Deep
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76: AboveMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 54%+10pp
Result: Below · 0.58
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $63,500 or above, or below $63,5001.13
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,900 or above, or below $1,9000.70
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $760.58
Average0.80
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

A rising tide lifts all boats: the crowd's dominant vision saw Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana all clearing their thresholds together in a broad, synchronised crypto rally.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $63,500 or above, or below $63,500?Above
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,900 or above, or below $1,900?Above
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?Above
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

Bitcoin and Ethereum hold their ground above the line while Solana lags, painting a picture of large-cap crypto strength with the smaller token left behind.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $63,500 or above, or below $63,500?Above
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,900 or above, or below $1,900?Above
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?Below
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters · came true

A coordinated pullback across the board: this minority vision saw all three assets failing to hold their thresholds, clustering tightly as a clean risk-off sweep.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $63,500 or above, or below $63,500?Below
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,900 or above, or below $1,900?Below
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?Below
68% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 629 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosBitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $63,500 or above, or below $63,500?Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,900 or above, or below $1,900?Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?
135%219 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
1.5×
218%116 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
0.9×
315%93 voters
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
3.1×
412%73 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
0.7×
510%62 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
0.7×
65%30 voters
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
0.9×
73%19 voters
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
0.4×
83%17 voters
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
0.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (629 voters · top 8 of 8 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 393 · 15%
2 / 3111 · 18%
1 / 3206 · 33%
0 / 3219 · 35%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=629). Average 1.12 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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