VoxPop top scenarios
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 590 voters
The matchAwaiting resultUpset
French Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska
A. Kalinskaya 63 3 Poland M. Chwalinska 77 6 AnnaKalinskaya MajaChwalińska 1 Aces 0 6 Double faults 1 68% First serve % 80% 51% Win % on 1st serve 51% 33% Win % on 2nd serve 57% 5/11 Break points 7/8 0 Tiebreaks won 1 37 Receiving points won 43 69 Points won 82 9 Games won 13 4 Max games won in a row 5 5 Max points won in a row 8 32 Service points won 39 4 Service games won 5
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Kalinskaya win by 2 or more sets?
72%Crowd
30%Market
+42Divergence
+42 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd are calling Yes on will kalinskaya win by 2 or more sets.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Kalinskaya win by 2 or more sets?Biggest gap30%72% Yes+42
2Will the match go 3 or more sets?40%69% Yes+29
3Who wins the match?51%78% Anna Kalinskaya+27
4Will the match have 23 or more total games?44%63% Yes+19
5Who wins the first set?50%56% Kalinskaya+6
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters590World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeMaja Chwalinska
Voters590
ReadUpset
2Who wins the first set?
OutcomeChwalinska
Voters590
ReadUpset
3Will the match have 23 or more total games?
OutcomeNo
Voters590
ReadMarket
4Will Kalinskaya win by 2 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters590
ReadMarket
5Will the match go 3 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters590
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match1.22
Who wins the first set0.63
Will the match have 23 or more total games0.79
Will Kalinskaya win by 2 or more sets1.04
Will the match go 3 or more sets0.95
Average0.93
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Who wins the first set?Will the match have 23 or more total games?Will Kalinskaya win by 2 or more sets?Will the match go 3 or more sets?
116%93 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
KalinskayaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
210%58 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
ChwalinskaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
38%46 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
KalinskayaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
46%34 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
KalinskayaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
56%34 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
ChwalinskaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
65%32 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
KalinskayaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
75%31 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
KalinskayaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
85%29 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
ChwalinskaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
94%22 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
ChwalinskaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
104%21 voters
Anna KalinskayaGot it wrong
ChwalinskaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (590 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.09How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching