VoxPop top scenarios
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 91 voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Premier League: Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Manchester City 1, Aston Villa 2
Crowd and market both called 3 of 5 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Manchester City win by 2 or more goals?
75%Crowd
56%Market
+19Divergence
+19 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on will manchester city win by 2 or more goals.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Manchester City win by 2 or more goals?Biggest gap56%75% yes+19
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?74%58% yes-16
3Who leads at half-time?58%73% Manchester City FC+15
4Will both teams score?61%73% yes+12
5Who wins?74%73% Manchester City FC-1
UpsetManchester City 1, Aston Villa 2 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 5questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
Manchester City win by…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters91World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeAston Villa FC
Voters91
ReadUpset
2Will both teams score?
Outcomeyes
Voters91
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeManchester City FC
Voters91
ReadConsensus
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Outcomeyes
Voters91
ReadConsensus
5Will Manchester City win by 2 or more goals?
Outcomeno
Voters91
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.18
Will both teams score0.15
Who leads at half-time0.12
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.35
Will Manchester City win by 2 or more goals1.13
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will Manchester City win by 2 or more goals?
121%19 voters
Manchester City FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
Manchester City FCCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.2×
219%17 voters
Manchester City FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
Manchester City FCCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.5×
311%10 voters
Manchester City FCGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
Manchester City FCCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.8×
44%4 voters
Manchester City FCGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
Manchester City FCCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.0×
54%4 voters
Manchester City FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
Manchester City FCCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
0.8×
63%3 voters
Aston Villa FCCalled it!
noGot it wrong
Aston Villa FCGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
noCalled it!
32.3×
73%3 voters
Aston Villa FCCalled it!
yesCalled it!
Aston Villa FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
8.7×
82%2 voters
Manchester City FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
Aston Villa FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.5×
92%2 voters
Aston Villa FCCalled it!
yesCalled it!
Manchester City FCCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.5×
102%2 voters
Manchester City FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (91 voters · top 10 of 31 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.35How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=91). Average 2.48 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching