French Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev 938 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 31 points above the market's price on Flavio Cobolli, and it went the other way.
54%Crowd on Flavio Cobolli
23%Market price
+31Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 5questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins the matchMarket beat the crowd
the match go 4 or more…Crowd & market agreed
wins the first setCrowd & market agreed
the match have 39 or…Crowd beat the market
Zverev win by 2 or more…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario13%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters938World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
Flavio Cobolli54%
Alexander Zverev ✓46%
OutcomeAlexander Zverev
Voters938
ReadMarket
2Will the match go 4 or more sets?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters938
ReadConsensus
3Who wins the first set?
Zverev ✓55%
Cobolli45%
OutcomeZverev
Voters938
ReadConsensus
4Will the match have 39 or more total games?
Yes ✓62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters938
ReadCrowd
5Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets?
Yes70%
No ✓30%
OutcomeNo
Voters938
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
Who wins the match: Flavio CobolliMarket
Mkt 23%Crowd 54%+31pp
Result: Alexander Zverev · 0.58
: Deep
Will the match go 4 or more sets: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 69%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Deep
Who wins the first set: ZverevConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 55%-13pp
Result: Zverev · 0.40
: Thin
Will the match have 39 or more total games: YesCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 62%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Thin
Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets: YesUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 70%+7pp
Result: No · 0.98
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.58
Will the match go 4 or more sets0.19
Who wins the first set0.40
Will the match have 39 or more total games0.29
Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets0.98
Average0.49
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
31% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 938 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match go 4 or more sets?Who wins the first set?Will the match have 39 or more total games?Will Zverev win by 2 or more sets?
113%120 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.7×
211%102 voters
Flavio CobolliGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
CobolliGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
37%65 voters
Flavio CobolliGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
46%57 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
55%48 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CobolliGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
64%39 voters
Flavio CobolliGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
CobolliGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
74%38 voters
Flavio CobolliGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
ZverevCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
84%33 voters
Alexander ZverevCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
ZverevCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.7×
93%29 voters
Flavio CobolliGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
CobolliGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
103%29 voters
Flavio CobolliGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
CobolliGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (938 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
5 / 528 · 3%
4 / 5191 · 20%
3 / 5283 · 30%
2 / 5292 · 31%
1 / 5125 · 13%
0 / 519 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=938). Average 2.62 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.