VoxPop top scenarios
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 100 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Premier League: Newcastle United vs West Ham United
Newcastle 3-1 West Ham
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Is Newcastle ahead at half time?
79%Crowd
37%Market
+42Divergence
+42 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on is newcastle ahead at half time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Is Newcastle ahead at half time?Biggest gap37%79% yes+42
2Who wins this match?46%68% Newcastle+22
3Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?66%76% yes+10
4Are there three or more total goals in regulation?67%74% yes+7
Crowd & market agreedNewcastle 3-1 West Ham — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there three or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams score at…Crowd & market agreed
Newcastle ahead at half…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario38%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters100World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeNewcastle
Voters100
ReadConsensus
2Are there three or more total goals in regulation?
Outcomeyes
Voters100
ReadConsensus
3Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
Outcomeyes
Voters100
ReadConsensus
4Is Newcastle ahead at half time?
Outcomeyes
Voters100
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.15
Are there three or more total goals in regulation0.14
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation0.12
Is Newcastle ahead at half time0.09
Average0.12
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Are there three or more total goals in regulation?Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Is Newcastle ahead at half time?
138%38 voters
NewcastleCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.3×
28%8 voters
NewcastleCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
0.8×
38%8 voters
West HamGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
4.2×
47%7 voters
NewcastleCalled it!
noGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
2.1×
56%6 voters
NewcastleCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.6×
66%6 voters
DrawGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
2.4×
75%5 voters
NewcastleCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
0.6×
85%5 voters
DrawGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.7×
93%3 voters
West HamGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.3×
102%2 voters
West HamGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (100 voters · top 10 of 18 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=100). Average 2.97 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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