VoxPop top scenarios
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 252 voters
The matchResolvedMarket beat the crowd
French Open: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk
7 E. Svitolina 3 6 2 Ukraine 15 M. Kostyuk 6 2 6 ElinaSvitolina MartaKostyuk 0 Aces 4 3 Double faults 3 56% First serve % 66% 60% Win % on 1st serve 71% 46% Win % on 2nd serve 33% 5/8 Break points 6/11 0 Tiebreaks won 0 38 Receiving points won 34 75 Points won 84 11 Games won 14 3 Max games won in a row 4 5 Max points won in a row 7 37 Service points won 50 6 Service games won 8
Crowd called 2 of 5 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will the match go 3 or more sets?
79%Crowd
41%Market
+38Divergence
+38 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will the match go 3 or more sets.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will the match go 3 or more sets?Biggest gap41%79% Yes+38
2Who wins the match?46%75% Elina Svitolina+29
3Will Kostyuk win by 2 or more sets?34%56% Yes+22
4Will the match have 23 or more total games?46%61% Yes+15
5Who wins the first set?47%54% Svitolina+7
Market beat the crowd7 E. Svitolina 3 6 2 Ukraine 15 M. Kostyuk 6 2 6 ElinaSvitolina MartaKostyuk 0 Aces 4 3 Double faults 3 56% First serve % 66% 60% Win % on 1st serve 71% 46% Win % on 2nd serve 33% 5/8 Break points 6/11 0 Tiebreaks won 0 38 Receiving points won 34 75 Points won 84 11 Games won 14 3 Max games won in a row 4 5 Max points won in a row 7 37 Service points won 50 6 Service games won 8 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 5questions the crowd called
wins the matchMarket beat the crowd
the match go 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
Kostyuk win by 2 or…Market beat the crowd
the match have 23 or…Crowd beat the market
wins the first setMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario13%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters252World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeMarta Kostyuk
Voters252
ReadMarket
2Will the match go 3 or more sets?
OutcomeYes
Voters252
ReadCrowd
3Will Kostyuk win by 2 or more sets?
OutcomeNo
Voters252
ReadMarket
4Will the match have 23 or more total games?
OutcomeYes
Voters252
ReadCrowd
5Who wins the first set?
OutcomeKostyuk
Voters252
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match1.13
Will the match go 3 or more sets0.09
Will Kostyuk win by 2 or more sets0.63
Will the match have 23 or more total games0.30
Who wins the first set0.58
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match go 3 or more sets?Will Kostyuk win by 2 or more sets?Will the match have 23 or more total games?Who wins the first set?
113%34 voters
Elina SvitolinaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SvitolinaGot it wrong
1.6×
211%27 voters
Elina SvitolinaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SvitolinaGot it wrong
1.0×
310%25 voters
Elina SvitolinaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
KostyukCalled it!
1.1×
46%15 voters
Elina SvitolinaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
SvitolinaGot it wrong
0.9×
56%14 voters
Elina SvitolinaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
SvitolinaGot it wrong
1.0×
66%14 voters
Elina SvitolinaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
KostyukCalled it!
0.9×
75%13 voters
Elina SvitolinaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
KostyukCalled it!
0.7×
84%11 voters
Marta KostyukCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
KostyukCalled it!
1.4×
94%9 voters
Marta KostyukCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SvitolinaGot it wrong
1.0×
103%8 voters
Marta KostyukCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
KostyukCalled it!
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (252 voters · top 10 of 31 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-12. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=252). Average 2.55 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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