FinanceResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Crypto week: which coins finish up by Friday?
Resolved
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $62,500 this Friday?
75%Crowd
55%Market
+20Divergence

+20 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above the market on Bitcoin, the widest gap across all four legs.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $62,500 this Friday?Biggest gap55%75% Above+20
2Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,790 this Friday?48%62% Above+14
3Will Solana (SOL) close above $75 this Friday?51%56% Above+5
4Will XRP close above $1.06 this Friday?57%58% Above+1
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedResolved — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed poll data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Bitcoin (BTC) close…Crowd & market agreed
Ethereum (ETH) close…Crowd beat the market
Solana (SOL) close…Crowd & market agreed
XRP close above $1.06…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $62,500 this Friday?
Above ✓75%
Below25%
OutcomeAbove
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,790 this Friday?
Above ✓62%
Below38%
OutcomeAbove
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
3Will Solana (SOL) close above $75 this Friday?
Above ✓56%
Below44%
OutcomeAbove
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
4Will XRP close above $1.06 this Friday?
Above ✓58%
Below42%
OutcomeAbove
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $62,500 this Friday: AboveConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 75%+20pp
Result: Above · 0.13
: Deep
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,790 this Friday: AboveCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 62%+14pp
Result: Above · 0.29
: Thin
Will Solana (SOL) close above $75 this Friday: AboveConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 56%+5pp
Result: Above · 0.39
: Thin
Will XRP close above $1.06 this Friday: AboveConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 58%+1pp
Result: Above · 0.35
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $62,500 this Friday0.13
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,790 this Friday0.29
Will Solana (SOL) close above $75 this Friday0.39
Will XRP close above $1.06 this Friday0.35
Average0.29
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

A full-sweep vision: the crowd sees BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP all clearing their thresholds together, the most tightly coordinated call in the joint map.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $62,500 this Friday?Above
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,790 this Friday?Above
Will Solana (SOL) close above $75 this Friday?Above
Will XRP close above $1.06 this Friday?Above
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

BTC, ETH, and XRP hold above their lines while SOL slips under, a split read where three coins carry and one lags.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $62,500 this Friday?Above
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,790 this Friday?Above
Will Solana (SOL) close above $75 this Friday?Below
Will XRP close above $1.06 this Friday?Above
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

BTC, ETH, and SOL all clear their marks while XRP falls short, a near-sweep vision with one outlier dragging on the tail.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $62,500 this Friday?Above
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,790 this Friday?Above
Will Solana (SOL) close above $75 this Friday?Above
Will XRP close above $1.06 this Friday?Below
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWill Bitcoin (BTC) close above $62,500 this Friday?Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,790 this Friday?Will Solana (SOL) close above $75 this Friday?Will XRP close above $1.06 this Friday?
127%324 voters
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
1.8×
210%120 voters
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
0.8×
38%100 voters
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
0.8×
47%88 voters
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
4.1×
57%88 voters
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
0.8×
67%85 voters
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
1.0×
76%70 voters
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
0.6×
86%68 voters
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
0.8×
95%57 voters
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
0.9×
104%44 voters
BelowGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 16 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4324 · 27%
3 / 4320 · 26%
2 / 4323 · 27%
1 / 4160 · 13%
0 / 488 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 2.52 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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