All resolved pollsResolved · 7 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana: where do they close on Friday 7 August?
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The verdict

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana: where do they close on Friday 7 August?

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana: where do they close on Friday 7 August? 735 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on $64,000 or above, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on $64,000 or above
48%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed poll data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm…Crowd beat the market
Ethereum at Friday's…Crowd & market agreed
Solana at Friday's 5pm…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters735World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,000 or above, or below $64,000?
$64,000 or above ✓71%
Below $64,00029%
Outcome$64,000 or above
Voters735
ReadCrowd
2Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,850 or above, or below $1,850?
$1,850 or above ✓56%
Below $1,85044%
Outcome$1,850 or above
Voters735
ReadConsensus
3Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $74 or above, or below $74?
$74 or above58%
Below $74 ✓42%
OutcomeBelow $74
Voters735
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,000 or above, or below $64,000: $64,000 or aboveCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 71%+23pp
Result: $64,000 or above · 0.17
: Deep
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,850 or above, or below $1,850: $1,850 or aboveConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 56%-9pp
Result: $1,850 or above · 0.39
: Thin
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $74 or above, or below $74: $74 or aboveMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 58%+8pp
Result: Below $74 · 0.67
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,000 or above, or below $64,0000.17
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,850 or above, or below $1,8500.39
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $74 or above, or below $740.67
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 34% of voters

A rising-tide vision: the crowd's dominant scenario saw all three assets holding above their thresholds, a coordinated crypto recovery across the board.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,000 or above, or below $64,000?$64,000 or above
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,850 or above, or below $1,850?$1,850 or above
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $74 or above, or below $74?$74 or above
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A clean sweep lower: the crowd's second cluster saw all three assets failing their thresholds, a unified bearish read with notably tight internal agreement.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,000 or above, or below $64,000?Below $64,000
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,850 or above, or below $1,850?Below $1,850
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $74 or above, or below $74?Below $74
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Bitcoin leads, Ethereum lags: a split scenario where Bitcoin and Solana hold up but Ethereum falls behind its threshold, reflecting a fractured altcoin picture.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,000 or above, or below $64,000?$64,000 or above
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,850 or above, or below $1,850?Below $1,850
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $74 or above, or below $74?$74 or above
61% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 735 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosBitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,000 or above, or below $64,000?Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,850 or above, or below $1,850?Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $74 or above, or below $74?
134%247 voters
$64,000 or aboveCalled it!
$1,850 or aboveCalled it!
$74 or aboveGot it wrong
1.5×
214%103 voters
Below $64,000Got it wrong
Below $1,850Got it wrong
Below $74Called it!
2.6×
313%98 voters
$64,000 or aboveCalled it!
Below $1,850Got it wrong
$74 or aboveGot it wrong
0.7×
413%92 voters
$64,000 or aboveCalled it!
$1,850 or aboveCalled it!
Below $74Called it!
0.7×
511%84 voters
$64,000 or aboveCalled it!
Below $1,850Got it wrong
Below $74Called it!
0.9×
65%40 voters
Below $64,000Got it wrong
$1,850 or aboveCalled it!
$74 or aboveGot it wrong
0.6×
75%39 voters
Below $64,000Got it wrong
Below $1,850Got it wrong
$74 or aboveGot it wrong
0.7×
84%32 voters
Below $64,000Got it wrong
$1,850 or aboveCalled it!
Below $74Called it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (735 voters · top 8 of 8 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 392 · 13%
2 / 3363 · 49%
1 / 3241 · 33%
0 / 339 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=735). Average 1.69 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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