All resolved pollsResolved · 31 JUL 2026Upset
Crypto week: above or below the line at 5pm ET Friday?
Resolved
The verdict

Crypto week: above or below the line at 5pm ET Friday?

Crypto week: above or below the line at 5pm ET Friday? 882 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Above, and it went the other way.

74%Crowd on Above
51%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed poll data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Bitcoin be $63,500 or…Surprise
Ethereum be $1,890 or…Market beat the crowd
Solana be $73 or above…Surprise
XRP be $1.06 or above…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters882World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Will Bitcoin be $63,500 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?
Above74%
Below ✓26%
OutcomeBelow
Voters882
ReadUpset
2Will Ethereum be $1,890 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?
Above58%
Below ✓42%
OutcomeBelow
Voters882
ReadMarket
3Will Solana be $73 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?
Above55%
Below ✓45%
OutcomeBelow
Voters882
ReadUpset
4Will XRP be $1.06 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?
Above ✓56%
Below44%
OutcomeAbove
Voters882
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Will Bitcoin be $63,500 or above at 5pm ET on Friday: AboveUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 74%+23pp
Result: Below · 1.10
: Deep
Will Ethereum be $1,890 or above at 5pm ET on Friday: AboveMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 58%+11pp
Result: Below · 0.67
: Deep
Will Solana be $73 or above at 5pm ET on Friday: AboveUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 55%0pp
Result: Below · 0.61
: Thin
Will XRP be $1.06 or above at 5pm ET on Friday: AboveCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 56%+10pp
Result: Above · 0.39
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Will Bitcoin be $63,500 or above at 5pm ET on Friday1.10
Will Ethereum be $1,890 or above at 5pm ET on Friday0.67
Will Solana be $73 or above at 5pm ET on Friday0.61
Will XRP be $1.06 or above at 5pm ET on Friday0.39
Average0.69
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

A broad crypto tide lifting every asset: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all clearing their thresholds in a clean sweep of bullish momentum.

Will Bitcoin be $63,500 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Above
Will Ethereum be $1,890 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Above
Will Solana be $73 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Above
Will XRP be $1.06 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Above
Scenario 2 · 9% of voters

A uniform retreat across the board: every asset falling short of its line in a coordinated, market-wide pullback with nowhere to hide.

Will Bitcoin be $63,500 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Below
Will Ethereum be $1,890 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Below
Will Solana be $73 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Below
Will XRP be $1.06 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Below
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

The majors hold while the smaller tokens slip: Bitcoin and Ethereum clearing their marks as Solana and XRP both fall short of their thresholds.

Will Bitcoin be $63,500 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Above
Will Ethereum be $1,890 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Above
Will Solana be $73 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Below
Will XRP be $1.06 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Below
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 882 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWill Bitcoin be $63,500 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Will Ethereum be $1,890 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Will Solana be $73 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?Will XRP be $1.06 or above at 5pm ET on Friday?
124%215 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
1.8×
29%81 voters
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
4.2×
39%77 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
1.0×
48%74 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
0.8×
58%68 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
0.7×
68%68 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
0.8×
76%56 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
0.8×
86%51 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
0.8×
95%45 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
0.8×
103%25 voters
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (882 voters · top 10 of 16 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 424 · 3%
3 / 4181 · 21%
2 / 4245 · 28%
1 / 4358 · 41%
0 / 474 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=882). Average 1.69 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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