VoxPop top scenarios
28% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 377 voters
The matchAwaiting resultMarket beat the crowd
French Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli
4 F. Auger-Aliassime 6 4 4 4 Italy 10 F. Cobolli 4 6 6 6 FelixAugerAliassime FlavioCobolli 7 Aces 8 4 Double faults 2 74% First serve % 62% 70% Win % on 1st serve 69% 57% Win % on 2nd serve 58% 3/11 Break points 5/10 0 Tiebreaks won 0 47 Receiving points won 43 125 Points won 127 18 Games won 22 3 Max games won in a row 4 5 Max points won in a row 6 78 Service points won 84 15 Service games won 17
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Cobolli win by 2 or more sets?
65%Crowd
37%Market
+28Divergence
+28 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd are calling Yes on will cobolli win by 2 or more sets.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Cobolli win by 2 or more sets?Biggest gap37%65% Yes+28
2Who wins the match?49%68% Felix Auger-Aliassime+19
3Who wins the first set?49%55% Auger-Aliassime+6
4Will the match have 37 or more total games?61%58% Yes-3
5Will the match go 4 or more sets?69%70% Yes+1
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario11%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters377World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeFlavio Cobolli
Voters377
ReadMarket
2Will the match go 4 or more sets?
OutcomeYes
Voters377
ReadConsensus
3Will Cobolli win by 2 or more sets?
OutcomeYes
Voters377
ReadCrowd
4Will the match have 37 or more total games?
OutcomeYes
Voters377
ReadConsensus
5Who wins the first set?
OutcomeAuger-Aliassime
Voters377
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.92
Will the match go 4 or more sets0.18
Will Cobolli win by 2 or more sets0.24
Will the match have 37 or more total games0.35
Who wins the first set0.40
Average0.42
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will the match go 4 or more sets?Will Cobolli win by 2 or more sets?Will the match have 37 or more total games?Who wins the first set?
111%42 voters
Felix Auger-AliassimeGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Auger-AliassimeCalled it!
1.1×
28%32 voters
Felix Auger-AliassimeGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Auger-AliassimeCalled it!
1.6×
38%30 voters
Felix Auger-AliassimeGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Auger-AliassimeCalled it!
1.1×
48%29 voters
Flavio CobolliCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CobolliGot it wrong
2.0×
56%21 voters
Felix Auger-AliassimeGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Auger-AliassimeCalled it!
1.4×
65%20 voters
Felix Auger-AliassimeGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CobolliGot it wrong
0.7×
74%15 voters
Felix Auger-AliassimeGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Auger-AliassimeCalled it!
0.9×
84%14 voters
Flavio CobolliCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
CobolliGot it wrong
3.1×
94%14 voters
Felix Auger-AliassimeGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
CobolliGot it wrong
0.9×
104%14 voters
Flavio CobolliCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Auger-AliassimeCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (377 voters · top 10 of 30 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-9The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-9; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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