VoxPop top scenarios
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Arsenal vs PSG
Resolved
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
100%Crowd
50%Market
+50Divergence
+50 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on do both teams score at least one goal in regulation.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Biggest gap50%100% yes+50
2Is Arsenal ahead at half time?50%75% yes+25
3Who wins this match?60%75% Arsenal+15
4Are there three or more total goals in regulation?50%50% yes0
Crowd & market agreedResolved — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there three or more…Surprise
both teams score at…Crowd & market agreed
Arsenal ahead at half…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeArsenal
Voters4
ReadConsensus
2Are there three or more total goals in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters4
ReadUpset
3Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
Outcomeyes
Voters4
ReadConsensus
4Is Arsenal ahead at half time?
Outcomeno
Voters4
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.13
Are there three or more total goals in regulation0.50
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation0.00
Is Arsenal ahead at half time1.13
Average0.44
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Are there three or more total goals in regulation?Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Is Arsenal ahead at half time?
125%1 voter
ArsenalCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.9×
225%1 voter
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
2.7×
325%1 voter
ArsenalCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.9×
425%1 voter
PSGGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
2.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.31How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call0.9×The most-backed combination drew 0.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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