VoxPop top scenarios
61% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 129 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Scottish Cup Final: Celtic v Dunfermline Athletic
Celtic 3, Dunfermline 1
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
66%Crowd
45%Market
+21Divergence
+21 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on do both teams score at least one goal in regulation.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Biggest gap45%66% yes+21
2Is Celtic ahead at half time?62%83% yes+21
3Who wins this match in regulation? (Extra time and penalties won't count here)78%82% Celtic+4
4Are there three or more total goals in regulation?65%62% yes-3
Crowd & market agreedCeltic 3, Dunfermline 1 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this match in…Crowd & market agreed
there three or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams score at…Crowd beat the market
Celtic ahead at half…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters129World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match in regulation? (Extra time and penalties won't count here)
OutcomeCeltic
Voters129
ReadConsensus
2Are there three or more total goals in regulation?
Outcomeyes
Voters129
ReadConsensus
3Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
Outcomeyes
Voters129
ReadCrowd
4Is Celtic ahead at half time?
Outcomeyes
Voters129
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match in regulation? (Extra time and penalties won't count here)0.05
Are there three or more total goals in regulation0.29
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation0.23
Is Celtic ahead at half time0.06
Average0.16
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match in regulation? (Extra time and penalties won't count here)Are there three or more total goals in regulation?Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Is Celtic ahead at half time?
131%40 voters
CelticCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.1×
218%23 voters
CelticCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.0×
312%16 voters
CelticCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
0.9×
412%15 voters
CelticCalled it!
noGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.3×
55%6 voters
DrawGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.1×
65%6 voters
CelticCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
0.8×
72%3 voters
DrawGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
5.4×
82%3 voters
CelticCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
0.8×
92%2 voters
DunfermlineGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.8×
102%2 voters
CelticCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (129 voters · top 10 of 21 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=129). Average 2.93 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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