VoxPop top scenarios
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 96 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd beat the market
IPL: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals
Rajasthan Royals 214-6 (20 overs): Sooryavanshi 96 (47); Holder 2-27 Gujarat Titans 219-3 (18.4 overs)
Crowd called 4 of 5 legs — ahead of the market on 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be 35 or more total match fours?
72%Crowd
52%Market
+20Divergence
+20 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on will there be 35 or more total match fours.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be 35 or more total match fours?Biggest gap52%72% yes+20
2Who wins the match?48%67% Gujarat Titans+19
3Will the Royals score 199 or more runs?52%65% yes+13
4Will the Titans score 200 or more runs?50%63% yes+13
5Will there be 22 or more total match sixes?59%64% yes+5
Crowd beat the marketRajasthan Royals 214-6 (20 overs): Sooryavanshi 96 (47); Holder 2-27 Gujarat Titans 219-3 (18.4 overs) — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 5questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins the matchCrowd beat the market
there be 35 or more…Crowd & market agreed
there be 22 or more…Surprise
the Royals score 199 or…Crowd & market agreed
the Titans score 200 or…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters96World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
OutcomeGujarat Titans
Voters96
ReadCrowd
2Will there be 35 or more total match fours?
Outcomeyes
Voters96
ReadConsensus
3Will there be 22 or more total match sixes?
Outcomeno
Voters96
ReadUpset
4Will the Royals score 199 or more runs?
Outcomeyes
Voters96
ReadConsensus
5Will the Titans score 200 or more runs?
Outcomeyes
Voters96
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.22
Will there be 35 or more total match fours0.16
Will there be 22 or more total match sixes0.82
Will the Royals score 199 or more runs0.24
Will the Titans score 200 or more runs0.28
Average0.34
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will there be 35 or more total match fours?Will there be 22 or more total match sixes?Will the Royals score 199 or more runs?Will the Titans score 200 or more runs?
119%18 voters
Gujarat TitansCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.5×
27%7 voters
Gujarat TitansCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
1.8×
37%7 voters
Rajasthan RoyalsGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
3.5×
47%7 voters
Rajasthan RoyalsGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.2×
56%6 voters
Gujarat TitansCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.9×
65%5 voters
Gujarat TitansCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.4×
75%5 voters
Rajasthan RoyalsGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noGot it wrong
3.6×
85%5 voters
Gujarat TitansCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
2.0×
94%4 voters
Gujarat TitansCalled it!
noGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.5×
104%4 voters
Gujarat TitansCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (96 voters · top 10 of 28 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.27How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=96). Average 3.02 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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