VoxPop top scenarios
30% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 795 voters
The matchAwaiting resultUpset
NBA Finals Game 1: New York at San Antonio
Knicks 105, Spurs 95
VoxPop gap highlight
Will San Antonio win by more than 10 points?
68%Crowd
34%Market
+34Divergence
+34 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd are calling yes on will san antonio win by more than 10 points.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will San Antonio win by more than 10 points?Biggest gap34%68% yes+34
2Does Victor Wembanyama score 30+ ?43%60% yes+17
3Is San Antonio ahead at half time?61%68% yes+7
4Will more than 217 points be scored in the game, in total?52%57% yes+5
5Who wins this match?67%68% Spurs+1
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters795World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
OutcomeKnicks
Voters795
ReadUpset
2Will San Antonio win by more than 10 points?
Outcomeno
Voters795
ReadMarket
3Will more than 217 points be scored in the game, in total?
Outcomeno
Voters795
ReadUpset
4Is San Antonio ahead at half time?
Outcomeyes
Voters795
ReadConsensus
5Does Victor Wembanyama score 30+ ?
Outcomeno
Voters795
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.92
Will San Antonio win by more than 10 points0.92
Will more than 217 points be scored in the game, in total0.65
Is San Antonio ahead at half time0.20
Does Victor Wembanyama score 30+0.72
Average0.68
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will San Antonio win by more than 10 points?Will more than 217 points be scored in the game, in total?Is San Antonio ahead at half time?Does Victor Wembanyama score 30+ ?
115%119 voters
SpursGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.4×
28%62 voters
SpursGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.0×
37%55 voters
SpursGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
1.3×
46%50 voters
KnicksCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.2×
55%38 voters
SpursGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.9×
65%38 voters
SpursGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
0.7×
73%27 voters
SpursGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.7×
83%27 voters
SpursGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
1.3×
93%26 voters
SpursGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.9×
103%26 voters
SpursGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (795 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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