VoxPop top scenarios
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 120 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Premier League: West Ham United vs. Leeds United
West Ham 3, Leeds 0
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will West Ham win by 2 or more goals?
62%Crowd
28%Market
+34Divergence
+34 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on will west ham win by 2 or more goals.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will West Ham win by 2 or more goals?Biggest gap28%62% yes+34
2Will both teams score?58%80% yes+22
3Who leads at half-time?38%49% West Ham United FC+11
4Who wins?52%48% West Ham United FC-4
Crowd & market agreedWest Ham 3, Leeds 0 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
West Ham win by 2 or…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters120World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeWest Ham United FC
Voters120
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters120
ReadMarket
3Will West Ham win by 2 or more goals?
Outcomeyes
Voters120
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score?
Outcomeno
Voters120
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.43
Who leads at half-time0.89
Will West Ham win by 2 or more goals0.29
Will both teams score1.28
Average0.72
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Who leads at half-time?Will West Ham win by 2 or more goals?Will both teams score?
120%24 voters
West Ham United FCCalled it!
West Ham United FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.7×
27%8 voters
Leeds United FCGot it wrong
Leeds United FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.3×
37%8 voters
Leeds United FCGot it wrong
Leeds United FCGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
2.2×
46%7 voters
West Ham United FCCalled it!
West Ham United FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
2.0×
56%7 voters
West Ham United FCCalled it!
West Ham United FCGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.8×
65%6 voters
DrawGot it wrong
West Ham United FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.3×
75%6 voters
West Ham United FCCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.4×
85%6 voters
Leeds United FCGot it wrong
West Ham United FCGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.6×
94%5 voters
Leeds United FCGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
0.9×
104%5 voters
Leeds United FCGot it wrong
West Ham United FCGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (120 voters · top 10 of 29 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.27How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=120). Average 1.53 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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