VoxPop top scenarios
59% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 133 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Europa League Final: SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa 3, Freiburg 0
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Is Aston Villa ahead at half time?
73%Crowd
37%Market
+36Divergence
+36 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on is aston villa ahead at half time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Is Aston Villa ahead at half time?Biggest gap37%73% yes+36
2Are there three or more total goals in regulation?48%65% yes+17
3Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?49%65% yes+16
4Who is the overall winner of this match? (including if the match goes to extra time or penalties)74%87% Aston Villa+13
Crowd & market agreedAston Villa 3, Freiburg 0 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
is the overall winner…Crowd & market agreed
there three or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams score at…Market beat the crowd
Aston Villa ahead at…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters133World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who is the overall winner of this match? (including if the match goes to extra time or penalties)
OutcomeAston Villa
Voters133
ReadConsensus
2Are there three or more total goals in regulation?
Outcomeyes
Voters133
ReadCrowd
3Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters133
ReadMarket
4Is Aston Villa ahead at half time?
Outcomeyes
Voters133
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who is the overall winner of this match? (including if the match goes to extra time or penalties)0.03
Are there three or more total goals in regulation0.24
Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation0.85
Is Aston Villa ahead at half time0.15
Average0.32
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho is the overall winner of this match? (including if the match goes to extra time or penalties)Are there three or more total goals in regulation?Do both teams score at least one goal in regulation?Is Aston Villa ahead at half time?
134%45 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
1.3×
214%18 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
noGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
1.7×
311%15 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
0.8×
411%14 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesCalled it!
0.7×
59%12 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
0.9×
64%5 voters
FreiburgGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
0.9×
74%5 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
0.7×
84%5 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
noGot it wrong
0.7×
94%5 voters
FreiburgGot it wrong
yesCalled it!
noCalled it!
noGot it wrong
4.7×
103%4 voters
FreiburgGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noGot it wrong
3.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (133 voters · top 10 of 13 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=133). Average 2.6 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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