VoxPop top scenarios
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 101 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Crystal Palace 1, Rayo 0
Crowd called 1 of 5 legs; market called 5.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Crystal Palace win by 2 or more goals in regulation?
63%Crowd
26%Market
+37Divergence
+37 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called yes on will crystal palace win by 2 or more goals in regulation.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Crystal Palace win by 2 or more goals in regulation?Biggest gap26%63% yes+37
2Will both teams score in regulation?49%73% yes+24
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation?45%60% yes+15
4Who wins? (in regulation time, excluding extra time and penalties)50%64% Crystal Palace FC+14
5Who leads at half-time?37%50% Crystal Palace FC+13
Crowd & market agreedCrystal Palace 1, Rayo 0 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 5questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
wins? (in regulation…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
Crystal Palace win by 2…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters101World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins? (in regulation time, excluding extra time and penalties)
OutcomeCrystal Palace FC
Voters101
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters101
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters101
ReadMarket
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters101
ReadMarket
5Will Crystal Palace win by 2 or more goals in regulation?
Outcomeno
Voters101
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins? (in regulation time, excluding extra time and penalties)0.19
Who leads at half-time0.98
Will both teams score in regulation1.07
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation0.72
Will Crystal Palace win by 2 or more goals in regulation0.79
Average0.75
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins? (in regulation time, excluding extra time and penalties)Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation?Will Crystal Palace win by 2 or more goals in regulation?
122%22 voters
Crystal Palace FCCalled it!
Crystal Palace FCGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
2.5×
26%6 voters
Crystal Palace FCCalled it!
Crystal Palace FCGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.0×
35%5 voters
Crystal Palace FCCalled it!
Rayo Vallecano de MadridGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.4×
44%4 voters
Rayo Vallecano de MadridGot it wrong
Rayo Vallecano de MadridGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
4.3×
54%4 voters
Crystal Palace FCCalled it!
Crystal Palace FCGot it wrong
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
1.2×
64%4 voters
Crystal Palace FCCalled it!
Crystal Palace FCGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
0.8×
74%4 voters
Crystal Palace FCCalled it!
Rayo Vallecano de MadridGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
0.7×
83%3 voters
Crystal Palace FCCalled it!
Crystal Palace FCGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
yesGot it wrong
1.4×
93%3 voters
Crystal Palace FCCalled it!
Crystal Palace FCGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
2.3×
103%3 voters
Rayo Vallecano de MadridGot it wrong
Rayo Vallecano de MadridGot it wrong
yesGot it wrong
noCalled it!
noCalled it!
4.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (101 voters · top 10 of 41 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.37How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.5×The most-backed combination drew 2.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=101). Average 1.87 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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