Friday's US jobs report: what will it say? 917 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
63%Crowd on Yes
49%Market price
+14Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed poll data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
the July report show…Surprise
the July report show…Crowd & market agreed
the July report show…Surprise
the July report show…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters917World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Will the July report show more than 50,000 jobs added?
Yes70%
No ✓30%
OutcomeNo
Voters917
ReadUpset
2Will the July report show more than 100,000 jobs added?
No ✓56%
Yes44%
OutcomeNo
Voters917
ReadConsensus
3Will the July report show unemployment above 4.1%?
Yes68%
No ✓32%
OutcomeNo
Voters917
ReadUpset
4Will the July report show unemployment above 4.2%?
Yes63%
No ✓37%
OutcomeNo
Voters917
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
Will the July report show more than 50,000 jobs added: YesUpset
Mkt 74%Crowd 70%-4pp
Result: No · 0.98
: Deep
Will the July report show more than 100,000 jobs added: NoConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 56%-10pp
Result: No · 0.39
: Thin
Will the July report show unemployment above 4.1%: YesUpset
Mkt 68%Crowd 68%0pp
Result: No · 0.92
: Deep
Will the July report show unemployment above 4.2%: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 63%+14pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Will the July report show more than 50,000 jobs added0.98
Will the July report show more than 100,000 jobs added0.39
Will the July report show unemployment above 4.1%0.92
Will the July report show unemployment above 4.2%0.79
Average0.77
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 917 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWill the July report show more than 50,000 jobs added?Will the July report show more than 100,000 jobs added?Will the July report show unemployment above 4.1%?Will the July report show unemployment above 4.2%?
120%179 voters
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
214%128 voters
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.9×
313%117 voters
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
48%72 voters
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
57%67 voters
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.0×
67%62 voters
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
77%61 voters
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
85%47 voters
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
95%43 voters
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
104%41 voters
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (917 voters · top 10 of 16 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 428 · 3%
3 / 4136 · 15%
2 / 4330 · 36%
1 / 4244 · 27%
0 / 4179 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=917). Average 1.55 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.