FinanceResolvedMarket beat the crowd
Crypto week: which coins finish up by Friday?
Resolved
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $66,500 this Friday?
72%Crowd
47%Market
+25Divergence

+25 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 25 points above market on Bitcoin, the week's widest gap, and it went the other way.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $66,500 this Friday?Biggest gap47%72% Above+25
2Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,960 this Friday?42%58% Above+16
3Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?45%55% Above+10
4Will Solana (SOL) close above $78 this Friday?54%56% Above+2
How it landed:Market beat the crowdResolved — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed poll data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
Bitcoin (BTC) close…Market beat the crowd
Ethereum (ETH) close…Market beat the crowd
Solana (SOL) close…Surprise
XRP close above $1.14…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $66,500 this Friday?
Above72%
Below ✓28%
OutcomeBelow
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
2Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,960 this Friday?
Above58%
Below ✓42%
OutcomeBelow
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
3Will Solana (SOL) close above $78 this Friday?
Above56%
Below ✓44%
OutcomeBelow
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
4Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?
Above55%
Below ✓45%
OutcomeBelow
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $66,500 this Friday: AboveMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 72%+25pp
Result: Below · 1.04
: Deep
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,960 this Friday: AboveMarket
Mkt 42%Crowd 58%+16pp
Result: Below · 0.67
: Thin
Will Solana (SOL) close above $78 this Friday: AboveUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 56%+2pp
Result: Below · 0.63
: Thin
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday: AboveMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 55%+10pp
Result: Below · 0.61
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $66,500 this Friday1.04
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,960 this Friday0.67
Will Solana (SOL) close above $78 this Friday0.63
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday0.61
Average0.74
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

A rising tide lifts all boats: the crowd's dominant vision was a synchronised rally across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, all clearing their thresholds together.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $66,500 this Friday?Above
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,960 this Friday?Above
Will Solana (SOL) close above $78 this Friday?Above
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?Above
Scenario 2 · 9% of voters

Three majors push through, but XRP stalls: BTC, ETH, and SOL all close above their marks while XRP falls short of its threshold.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $66,500 this Friday?Above
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,960 this Friday?Above
Will Solana (SOL) close above $78 this Friday?Above
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?Below
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

BTC, ETH, and XRP all clear their levels, but Solana slips below its threshold, the one weak link in an otherwise bullish week.

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $66,500 this Friday?Above
Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,960 this Friday?Above
Will Solana (SOL) close above $78 this Friday?Below
Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?Above
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWill Bitcoin (BTC) close above $66,500 this Friday?Will Ethereum (ETH) close above $1,960 this Friday?Will Solana (SOL) close above $78 this Friday?Will XRP close above $1.14 this Friday?
122%242 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
1.7×
29%96 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
0.8×
39%94 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
0.9×
48%91 voters
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
3.6×
58%81 voters
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
0.9×
67%73 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
0.9×
76%70 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
0.9×
86%65 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
0.6×
95%54 voters
AboveGot it wrong
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
0.8×
104%41 voters
BelowCalled it!
BelowCalled it!
AboveGot it wrong
AboveGot it wrong
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 16 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 491 · 8%
3 / 4148 · 14%
2 / 4315 · 29%
1 / 4281 · 26%
0 / 4242 · 22%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 1.6 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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