VoxPop top scenarios
35% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 170 voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Champions League Final: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Arsenal
Arsenal 1, PSG 1, 4-3 to PSG on penalties
Crowd called 1 of 5 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals in regulation?
62%Crowd
12%Market
+50Divergence
+50 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will arsenal win by 2 or more goals in regulation.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals in regulation?Biggest gap12%62% Yes+50
2Will both teams score in regulation?55%84% Yes+29
3Who leads at half-time?33%51% PSG+18
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation?48%66% Yes+18
5Who wins in regulation?41%57% PSG+16
UpsetArsenal 1, PSG 1, 4-3 to PSG on penalties — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 5questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins in regulationSurprise
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
Arsenal win by 2 or…Market beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters170World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins in regulation?
OutcomeDraw
Voters170
ReadUpset
2Will both teams score in regulation?
OutcomeYes
Voters170
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeArsenal
Voters170
ReadUpset
4Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals in regulation?
OutcomeNo
Voters170
ReadMarket
5Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation?
OutcomeNo
Voters170
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins in regulation1.24
Will both teams score in regulation0.05
Who leads at half-time0.77
Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals in regulation0.77
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation0.87
Average0.74
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins in regulation?Will both teams score in regulation?Who leads at half-time?Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals in regulation?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation?
114%24 voters
PSGGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
PSGGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
212%21 voters
PSGGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
PSGGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
39%15 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
ArsenalCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.5×
45%8 voters
PSGGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
ArsenalCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
55%8 voters
PSGGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
PSGGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
64%6 voters
PSGGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
PSGGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
74%6 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
ArsenalCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.9×
83%5 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
PSGGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
93%5 voters
DrawCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
4.8×
102%4 voters
PSGGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
PSGGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (170 voters · top 10 of 46 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=170). Average 1.96 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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