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Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
75%Crowd
62%Market
+13Divergence

+13 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd runs well above market on New England leading at half-time.

8m 57sof alpha left before kick-off
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap62%75% New England+13
2Will New England win by 8 or more?47%50% Yes+3
3Will there be more than 44.5 points?47%50% Over 44.5+3
4Who wins?77%75% New England Patriots-2
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New England Patriots75%
Miami Dolphins25%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
2Will New England win by 8 or more?
Yes50%
No50%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
3Will there be more than 44.5 points?
Over 44.550%
Under 44.550%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
4Who leads at half-time?
New England75%
Miami25%
Tie0%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New England Patriots
Mkt 77%Crowd 75%-2pp
: Thin
Will New England win by 8 or more: Yes
Mkt 47%Crowd 50%+3pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 44.5 points: Over 44.5
Mkt 47%Crowd 50%+3pp
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: New England
Mkt 62%Crowd 75%+13pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A low-scoring, tight affair where New England controls the first half but Miami rallies to steal a close win in a game that stays under the total.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Will New England win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?New England
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Miami seizes the first-half lead in a high-scoring shootout, but New England comes back to win without ever pulling clear by a wide margin.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will New England win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Miami
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

New England dominates from the opening drive, leads at the break, piles on points in a high-scoring game, and wins by a commanding margin.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will New England win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?New England
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will New England win by 8 or more?Will there be more than 44.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Miami DolphinsPending
NoPending
Under 44.5Pending
New EnglandPending
5.3×
225%1 voter
New England PatriotsPending
NoPending
Over 44.5Pending
MiamiPending
5.3×
325%1 voter
New England PatriotsPending
YesPending
Over 44.5Pending
New EnglandPending
1.8×
425%1 voter
New England PatriotsPending
YesPending
Under 44.5Pending
New EnglandPending
1.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.63How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call5.3×The most-backed combination drew 5.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-21. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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