VoxPop top scenarios
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
PortugalCrowd's pick · 86%1
DR CongoCrowd had 9%1
The verdict
Portugal 1–1 Congo DR
Portugal vs. DR Congo 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Portugal, and it went the other way.
81%Crowd on Portugal
58%Market price
+23Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario39%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.65
Will there be 3 or more goals scored1.16
Who leads at half-time1.47
Will both teams score0.26
Average1.13
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
139%528 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
221%289 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
38%113 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
PortugalGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
48%107 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
PortugalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
53%36 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DR CongoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
63%36 voters
DR CongoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DR CongoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
6.8×
72%32 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
82%22 voters
DR CongoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
91%17 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
101%16 voters
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.03 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.