VoxPop top scenarios
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Portugal1
DR Congo1
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
81%Crowd
58%Market
+23Divergence
+23 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Portugal on who leads at half-time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap58%81% Portugal+23
2Will both teams score?41%64% Yes+23
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?56%76% Yes+20
4Who wins?76%86% Portugal+10
UpsetPortugal 1–1 Congo DR — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario39%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.65
Will there be 3 or more goals scored1.16
Who leads at half-time1.47
Will both teams score0.26
Average1.13
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
139%528 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
221%289 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
38%113 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
PortugalGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
48%107 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
PortugalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
53%36 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DR CongoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
63%36 voters
DR CongoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DR CongoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
6.8×
72%32 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
82%22 voters
DR CongoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
91%17 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
101%16 voters
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.03 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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