All resolved pollsResolved · 14 SEPT 2026Upset
VillarrealCrowd's pick · 50%1
Real BetisWon · Crowd had 32%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 2.5 goals. Real Betis won 1–2.

Villarreal vs Real Betis 678 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

55%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
39%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters678World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Villarreal50%
Real Betis ✓32%
Tie17%
OutcomeReal Betis
Voters678
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals55%
Over 2.5 goals ✓45%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters678
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓63%
No37%
OutcomeYes
Voters678
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: VillarrealUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 50%-1pp
Result: Real Betis · 0.74
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 55%+16pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.61
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 63%+1pp
Result: Yes · 0.27
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.74
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.61
Will both teams score0.27
Average0.54
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 19% of voters

A lively home win: Villarreal take the points in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and the goals flow freely.

Match resultVillarreal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tight, controlled Villarreal victory: the home side shuts the game down, keeps it low-scoring, and denies Betis a goal throughout.

Match resultVillarreal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A narrow Villarreal win in a cagey affair: both teams get on the scoresheet but the game stays compact and the total stays low.

Match resultVillarreal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 678 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
119%131 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
214%92 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
313%89 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
412%84 voters
Real BetisCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
59%60 voters
Real BetisCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
67%49 voters
Real BetisCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
77%48 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
85%32 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
94%30 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
104%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (678 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 384 · 12%
2 / 3232 · 34%
1 / 3238 · 35%
0 / 3124 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=678). Average 1.41 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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