All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Sarmiento
Rosario Central
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
58%Crowd
47%Market
+11Divergence

+11 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits above market on Rosario Central, below market on the Tie.

10m 42sof alpha left before kick-off
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap47%58% CA Rosario Central+11
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario58%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters539World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
CA Rosario Central58%
CA Sarmiento28%
Tie14%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters539
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: CA Rosario Central
Mkt 47%Crowd 58%+11pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 58% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Rosario Central take the points in Junín, a call the crowd makes with far more conviction than the market reflects.

Match resultCA Rosario Central
Scenario 2 · 28% of voters

A meaningful minority of the crowd sees the home side, Sarmiento, turning the match in their favour on their own ground.

Match resultCA Sarmiento
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

The crowd's least-favoured vision: a share of the spoils, a scenario the market prices far more heavily than the crowd is willing to endorse.

Match resultTie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 539 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch result
158%312 voters
CA Rosario CentralPending
1.0×
228%153 voters
CA SarmientoPending
1.0×
314%74 voters
TiePending
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (539 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
-0.00How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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