The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Norway1
England2
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
78%Crowd
57%Market
+21Divergence

+21 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 21 points above market on both teams scoring, and it landed.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap57%78% Yes+21
2Who wins this match?65%60% England advances-5
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?52%51% Yes-1
4Who leads at half-time?37%37% England wins 1st Half0
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedNorway 1–2 England (after extra time) — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
England advances60%
Norway advances40%
OutcomeEngland advances
Voters2k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes78%
No22%
OutcomeYes
Voters2k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
England wins 1st Half37%
Tie 1st Half32%
Norway wins 1st Half31%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters2k
ReadMarket
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeNo
Voters2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: England advancesConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 60%-5pp
Result: England advances · 0.32
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 78%+21pp
Result: Yes · 0.10
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: England wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 37%0pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.70
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 51%-1pp
Result: No · 0.52
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.32
Will both teams score in regulation time0.10
Who leads at half-time0.70
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.52
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

England in control from the off, both sides finding the net in a free-scoring contest that tips past three goals before the final whistle.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

England advance with goals traded across the match, but the scoreline stays tight enough that the three-goal threshold is never reached.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Norway seize the initiative early, lead at the break, and both teams contribute to a high-scoring tie that ends in Norwegian progression.

Who wins this match?Norway advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Norway wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
115%312 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.7×
212%234 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
310%204 voters
Norway advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Norway wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
48%163 voters
Norway advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Norway wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.7×
58%153 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
66%127 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
76%120 voters
Norway advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
85%92 voters
Norway advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
94%77 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
104%72 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (2k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4127 · 6%
3 / 4598 · 30%
2 / 4880 · 43%
1 / 4379 · 19%
0 / 442 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=2k). Average 2.19 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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