All resolved pollsResolved · 11 JUL 2026Crowd & market agreed
Norway1
England2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. England won 1–2.

Norway vs England 2k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 21 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

78%Crowd on Yes
57%Market price
+21Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
England advances60%
Norway advances40%
OutcomeEngland advances
Voters2k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes78%
No22%
OutcomeYes
Voters2k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
England wins 1st Half37%
Tie 1st Half32%
Norway wins 1st Half31%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters2k
ReadMarket
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeNo
Voters2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: England advancesConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 60%-5pp
Result: England advances · 0.32
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 78%+21pp
Result: Yes · 0.10
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: England wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 37%0pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.70
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 51%-1pp
Result: No · 0.52
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.32
Will both teams score in regulation time0.10
Who leads at half-time0.70
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.52
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

England in control from the off, both sides finding the net in a free-scoring contest that tips past three goals before the final whistle.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

England advance with goals traded across the match, but the scoreline stays tight enough that the three-goal threshold is never reached.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Norway seize the initiative early, lead at the break, and both teams contribute to a high-scoring tie that ends in Norwegian progression.

Who wins this match?Norway advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Norway wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
115%312 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.7×
212%234 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
310%204 voters
Norway advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Norway wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
48%163 voters
Norway advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Norway wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.7×
58%153 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
66%127 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
76%120 voters
Norway advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
85%92 voters
Norway advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
94%77 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
104%72 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (2k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4127 · 6%
3 / 4598 · 30%
2 / 4880 · 43%
1 / 4379 · 19%
0 / 442 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=2k). Average 2.19 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.