The matchResolvedMarket beat the crowd
Spain
Argentina
Spain 1, Argentina 0
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
42%Crowd
22%Market
+20Divergence

+20 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd on Argentina leading at half-time: more than double the market's read.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap22%42% Argentina wins 1st Half+20
2Who lifts the trophy?42%60% Argentina+18
3Will both teams score in regulation time?52%65% Yes+13
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?44%54% Yes+10
How it landed:Market beat the crowdSpain 1, Argentina 0 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
lifts the trophyMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams score in…Surprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who lifts the trophy?
Argentina60%
Spain40%
OutcomeSpain
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes54%
No46%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes65%
No35%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Argentina wins 1st Half42%
Spain wins 1st Half29%
Tie 1st Half29%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who lifts the trophy: ArgentinaMarket
Mkt 42%Crowd 60%+18pp
Result: Spain · 0.72
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 54%+10pp
Result: No · 0.58
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 65%+13pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Argentina wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 22%Crowd 42%+20pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.76
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who lifts the trophy0.72
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.58
Will both teams score in regulation time0.85
Who leads at half-time0.76
Average0.73
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

Argentina in control from the first whistle, both teams trading goals in an open final, and the Albiceleste lifting the trophy at the end.

Who lifts the trophy?Argentina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 9% of voters

Argentina lead at the break and keep it tight from there, with both teams scoring but the game staying under three goals in regulation.

Who lifts the trophy?Argentina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Spain set the tempo early, take the half-time lead, and both sides contribute goals in a high-scoring final that ends with Spain lifting the trophy.

Who lifts the trophy?Spain
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
32% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho lifts the trophy?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
115%195 voters
ArgentinaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.7×
29%120 voters
ArgentinaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
38%99 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.9×
47%98 voters
ArgentinaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.6×
56%72 voters
ArgentinaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.4×
65%69 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.3×
75%66 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.5×
85%64 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.4×
95%59 voters
ArgentinaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.7×
104%57 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Spain wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.23How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 438 · 3%
3 / 4200 · 15%
2 / 4370 · 28%
1 / 4464 · 35%
0 / 4236 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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