The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Paraguay0
France1
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
71%Crowd
39%Market
+32Divergence

+32 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran far above market on both teams scoring, a read that diverged from the shutout result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap39%71% Yes+32
2Who leads at half-time?61%68% France wins 1st Half+7
3Who wins this match?91%86% France advances-5
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?61%63% Yes+2
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedParaguay 0–1 France — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.7kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France advances86%
Paraguay advances14%
OutcomeFrance advances
Voters1.7k
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
France wins 1st Half68%
Tie 1st Half17%
Paraguay wins 1st Half14%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes63%
No37%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes71%
No29%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: France advancesConsensus
Mkt 91%Crowd 86%-5pp
Result: France advances · 0.04
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: France wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 68%+7pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 1.17
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 63%+2pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 71%+32pp
Result: No · 1.01
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.04
Who leads at half-time1.17
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.79
Will both teams score in regulation time1.01
Average0.75
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

France in control from the off, leading at the break in a free-scoring game where both sides find the net before full time.

Who wins this match?France advances
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

France ahead at half-time in a tight, lower-scoring affair, yet Paraguay still manage a goal of their own before the final whistle.

Who wins this match?France advances
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

France dominant and leading at the break in a high-scoring match, but Paraguay kept off the scoresheet as France pile on the goals alone.

Who wins this match?France advances
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.7k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
133%547 voters
France advancesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
214%237 voters
France advancesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
313%220 voters
France advancesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
46%100 voters
France advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
55%91 voters
France advancesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
64%70 voters
France advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
74%59 voters
Paraguay advancesGot it wrong
Paraguay wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
4.0×
83%51 voters
France advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
93%49 voters
Paraguay advancesGot it wrong
Paraguay wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
5.7×
103%42 voters
France advancesCalled it!
Paraguay wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.7k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 451 · 3%
3 / 4212 · 13%
2 / 4649 · 39%
1 / 4691 · 41%
0 / 471 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.7k). Average 1.69 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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