All resolved pollsResolved · 4 JUL 2026Crowd & market agreed
Paraguay0
France1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. France won 0–1.

Paraguay vs France 1.7k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 32 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Yes
39%Market price
+32Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.7kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France advances86%
Paraguay advances14%
OutcomeFrance advances
Voters1.7k
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
France wins 1st Half68%
Tie 1st Half17%
Paraguay wins 1st Half14%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes63%
No37%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes71%
No29%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: France advancesConsensus
Mkt 91%Crowd 86%-5pp
Result: France advances · 0.04
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: France wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 68%+7pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 1.17
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 63%+2pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 71%+32pp
Result: No · 1.01
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.04
Who leads at half-time1.17
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.79
Will both teams score in regulation time1.01
Average0.75
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

France in control from the off, leading at the break in a free-scoring game where both sides find the net before full time.

Who wins this match?France advances
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

France ahead at half-time in a tight, lower-scoring affair, yet Paraguay still manage a goal of their own before the final whistle.

Who wins this match?France advances
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

France dominant and leading at the break in a high-scoring match, but Paraguay kept off the scoresheet as France pile on the goals alone.

Who wins this match?France advances
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.7k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
133%547 voters
France advancesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
214%237 voters
France advancesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
313%220 voters
France advancesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
46%100 voters
France advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
55%91 voters
France advancesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
64%70 voters
France advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
74%59 voters
Paraguay advancesGot it wrong
Paraguay wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
4.0×
83%51 voters
France advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
93%49 voters
Paraguay advancesGot it wrong
Paraguay wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
5.7×
103%42 voters
France advancesCalled it!
Paraguay wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.7k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 451 · 3%
3 / 4212 · 13%
2 / 4649 · 39%
1 / 4691 · 41%
0 / 471 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.7k). Average 1.69 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.