All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Pittsburgh SteelersWon · Crowd had 45%20
Atlanta FalconsCrowd's pick · 55%13
The verdict

The crowd backed Atlanta Falcons. Pittsburgh Steelers won 20–13.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons 561 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Atlanta Falcons, and it went the other way.

55%Crowd on Atlanta Falcons
38%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Against the spread, who…Surprise
total points are scoredMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters561World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Atlanta Falcons55%
Pittsburgh Steelers ✓45%
OutcomePittsburgh Steelers
Voters561
ReadMarket
2Against the spread, who covers?
Atlanta Falcons +3.557%
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 ✓43%
OutcomePittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Voters561
ReadUpset
3How many total points are scored?
Over 42.556%
Under 42.5 ✓44%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters561
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Atlanta Falcons46%
Pittsburgh Steelers ✓35%
Tie18%
OutcomePittsburgh Steelers
Voters561
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Atlanta FalconsMarket
Mkt 38%Crowd 55%+17pp
Result: Pittsburgh Steelers · 0.61
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: Atlanta Falcons +3.5Upset
Mkt 52%Crowd 57%+5pp
Result: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 · 0.65
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 42.5Market
Mkt 48%Crowd 56%+8pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 0.63
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Atlanta FalconsMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 46%+9pp
Result: Pittsburgh Steelers · 0.67
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.61
Against the spread, who covers0.65
How many total points are scored0.63
Who leads at half-time0.67
Average0.64
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 19% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Atlanta controls the game wire to wire, leads at the break, keeps it close enough to cover, and both offences combine to push the total past the line.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Against the spread, who covers?Atlanta Falcons +3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Atlanta Falcons
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A Pittsburgh-believers' picture: the Steelers take command early, lead at half-time, cover a spread that demands a clear margin, and a free-flowing game sends the total over.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Against the spread, who covers?Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Pittsburgh Steelers
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A grittier Atlanta scenario: the Falcons win but in a low-scoring, defensive contest, staying within the spread while holding the lead at the interval.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Against the spread, who covers?Atlanta Falcons +3.5
How many total points are scored?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Atlanta Falcons
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 561 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
119%108 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
Atlanta Falcons +3.5Got it wrong
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
2.4×
212%67 voters
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5Called it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
3.1×
311%59 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
Atlanta Falcons +3.5Got it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
1.7×
48%47 voters
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5Called it!
Under 42.5Called it!
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
2.8×
54%22 voters
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
Atlanta Falcons +3.5Got it wrong
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
0.8×
64%21 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5Called it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
0.6×
74%20 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5Called it!
Under 42.5Called it!
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
0.7×
83%19 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
Atlanta Falcons +3.5Got it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.4×
93%16 voters
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
Atlanta Falcons +3.5Got it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
0.7×
103%15 voters
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
Atlanta Falcons +3.5Got it wrong
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (561 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.31How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.4×The most-backed combination drew 2.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-12. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 447 · 8%
3 / 4118 · 21%
2 / 4124 · 22%
1 / 4150 · 27%
0 / 4122 · 22%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=561). Average 1.68 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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