The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Panama0
England2
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
65%Crowd
25%Market
+40Divergence

+40 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran far above market on goals, a read the low-scoring result did not support.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Biggest gap25%65% Yes+40
2Who leads at half-time?58%73% England+15
3Who wins this match?79%87% England+8
4Will both teams score?60%57% No-3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedPanama 0–2 England — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
England87%
Panama7%
Draw6%
OutcomeEngland
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes65%
No35%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
3Who leads at half-time?
England73%
Draw17%
Panama10%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
No57%
Yes43%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: EnglandConsensus
Mkt 79%Crowd 87%+8pp
Result: England · 0.03
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 25%Crowd 65%+40pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: EnglandUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 73%+15pp
Result: Draw · 1.23
: Deep
Will both teams score: NoConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 57%-3pp
Result: No · 0.37
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.03
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.85
Who leads at half-time1.23
Will both teams score0.37
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

England dominant from the off, leading at the break and piling on goals, yet keeping Panama off the scoresheet in a one-sided, high-scoring shutout.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 2 · 21% of voters

England in control at half-time and goals flowing freely, with Panama grabbing one back in a lively, open contest that still ends in an England victory.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

England efficient and disciplined, leading at the break and winning without conceding, but keeping the scoreline tight and clinical rather than free-scoring.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?England
Will both teams score?No
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
129%391 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
221%288 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
313%179 voters
EnglandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
46%78 voters
EnglandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
54%59 voters
EnglandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
63%41 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
73%35 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.5×
82%31 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
PanamaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
92%29 voters
EnglandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
101%19 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
6.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 459 · 4%
3 / 4283 · 21%
2 / 4582 · 43%
1 / 4389 · 29%
0 / 438 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.95 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching