All resolved pollsResolved · 27 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
PanamaCrowd had 7%0
EnglandWon · Crowd had 87%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. England won 0–2.

Panama vs. England 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 40 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

65%Crowd on Yes
25%Market price
+40Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
England87%
Panama7%
Draw6%
OutcomeEngland
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes65%
No35%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
3Who leads at half-time?
England73%
Draw17%
Panama10%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
No57%
Yes43%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: EnglandConsensus
Mkt 79%Crowd 87%+8pp
Result: England · 0.03
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 25%Crowd 65%+40pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: EnglandUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 73%+15pp
Result: Draw · 1.23
: Deep
Will both teams score: NoConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 57%-3pp
Result: No · 0.37
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.03
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.85
Who leads at half-time1.23
Will both teams score0.37
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

England dominant from the off, leading at the break and piling on goals, yet keeping Panama off the scoresheet in a one-sided, high-scoring shutout.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 2 · 21% of voters

England in control at half-time and goals flowing freely, with Panama grabbing one back in a lively, open contest that still ends in an England victory.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

England efficient and disciplined, leading at the break and winning without conceding, but keeping the scoreline tight and clinical rather than free-scoring.

Who wins this match?England
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?England
Will both teams score?No
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
129%391 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
221%288 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
313%179 voters
EnglandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
EnglandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
46%78 voters
EnglandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
EnglandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
54%59 voters
EnglandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
63%41 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
73%35 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.5×
82%31 voters
EnglandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
PanamaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
92%29 voters
EnglandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
101%19 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
6.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 459 · 4%
3 / 4283 · 21%
2 / 4582 · 43%
1 / 4389 · 29%
0 / 438 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.95 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.